Providence
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
36  Catarina Rocha SR 19:35
53  Brianna Ilarda SR 19:42
93  Millie Paladino SR 19:56
193  Abbey Wheeler SO 20:15
515  Mackenzie Barry SR 20:52
652  Maria Coffin FR 21:04
1,499  Alex DeCicco SO 22:00
2,334  Aisling Quinn JR 23:00
2,342  Dara Cuffe JR 23:01
National Rank #18 of 348
Northeast Region Rank #1 of 44
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 95.9%
Most Likely Finish 13th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 14.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 73.7%


Regional Champion 53.0%
Top 5 in Regional 98.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Catarina Rocha Brianna Ilarda Millie Paladino Abbey Wheeler Mackenzie Barry Maria Coffin Alex DeCicco Aisling Quinn Dara Cuffe
Shawn M. Nassaney Memorial Race 09/09 972 20:03 20:39 20:51 22:10 22:59 23:28
Coast-To-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/22 483 19:40 19:51 20:18 19:59 20:48 20:58 22:08
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 335 19:39 19:27 19:26 20:07 20:56 20:35 22:35
Big East Championship 10/28 434 19:21 19:34 19:49 20:14 21:06 21:17 21:53 23:02 22:25
Northeast Region Championships 11/10 565 19:45 19:55 20:18 20:23 20:50 21:37 21:41





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 95.9% 16.3 446 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.1 4.4 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.6 5.9 6.1 5.8 5.3 5.5 4.9 3.5 3.7 2.7 3.4 2.5 2.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.2
Region Championship 100% 1.9 90 53.0 25.0 11.4 5.9 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Catarina Rocha 99.2% 40.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.0 1.6 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6
Brianna Ilarda 97.4% 55.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8
Millie Paladino 96.1% 90.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Abbey Wheeler 95.9% 145.3
Mackenzie Barry 95.9% 222.8
Maria Coffin 95.9% 235.3
Alex DeCicco 96.3% 251.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Catarina Rocha 2.7 9.5 22.5 24.2 16.7 10.6 6.2 4.2 1.7 1.2 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Brianna Ilarda 4.0 1.9 11.7 17.8 18.7 15.1 8.7 6.3 5.4 3.9 3.2 1.5 2.0 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Millie Paladino 7.6 0.3 0.8 3.9 8.1 10.6 11.1 10.4 8.7 8.0 8.0 5.4 4.3 3.5 3.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3
Abbey Wheeler 16.8 0.1 0.6 0.7 2.0 2.4 4.1 4.1 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.2 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.7 2.7 3.5 3.2 2.2
Mackenzie Barry 53.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.9
Maria Coffin 72.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Alex DeCicco 171.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 53.0% 100.0% 53.0 53.0 1
2 25.0% 100.0% 25.0 25.0 2
3 11.4% 100.0% 4.1 3.7 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 11.4 3
4 5.9% 99.2% 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9 4
5 3.0% 23.7% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.3 0.7 5
6 1.4% 1.4 6
7 0.3% 0.3 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
Total 100% 95.9% 53.0 25.0 4.1 4.8 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 4.1 78.0 18.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Furman 97.9% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 96.1% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 90.4% 1.0 0.9
Columbia 78.2% 1.0 0.8
California 58.5% 1.0 0.6
Utah 43.1% 1.0 0.4
Indiana 42.4% 2.0 0.8
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 26.5% 2.0 0.5
Dartmouth 21.2% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 17.5% 1.0 0.2
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Cornell 13.1% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 5.6% 2.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 11.5
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 19.0