American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Houston 99.4%   3   16 - 2 5 - 0 26 - 4 15 - 2 +17.5      +9.7 9 +7.8 15 63.6 312 +16.5 16 +18.8 1
41 Memphis 36.2%   9 - 7 3 - 3 17 - 11 11 - 7 +10.6      +5.3 47 +5.3 52 77.5 17 +6.4 88 +5.4 6
63 SMU 17.4%   13 - 4 4 - 1 20 - 9 11 - 6 +8.2      +6.2 34 +2.0 110 71.6 96 +8.6 67 +12.6 2
74 Cincinnati 13.7%   12 - 5 3 - 2 19 - 10 10 - 7 +7.4      +2.3 108 +5.1 55 68.0 195 +8.0 74 +7.7 5
81 Central Florida 12.8%   11 - 5 3 - 3 18 - 10 10 - 8 +7.1      +3.5 84 +3.7 78 68.0 196 +8.5 68 +4.9 7
87 Wichita St. 6.0%   9 - 7 0 - 4 15 - 12 6 - 9 +6.6      +0.6 162 +6.0 35 67.5 215 +4.7 106 -11.1 11
121 Tulsa 0.9%   6 - 9 0 - 4 12 - 17 6 - 12 +2.9      +1.1 150 +1.8 116 64.7 301 -1.9 200 -9.9 10
122 Temple 1.3%   10 - 6 3 - 2 15 - 13 8 - 9 +2.9      +0.9 151 +2.0 114 65.2 287 +6.1 93 +9.2 4
135 Tulane 0.9%   7 - 8 4 - 2 11 - 16 8 - 10 +2.0      +0.6 159 +1.3 134 68.4 184 +0.4 161 +9.8 3
153 East Carolina 0.2%   11 - 6 2 - 3 15 - 14 6 - 11 +0.5      +1.2 141 -0.7 192 70.0 141 +3.5 118 +3.1 8
191 South Florida 0.1%   6 - 11 1 - 4 10 - 20 5 - 13 -1.3      -5.4 317 +4.1 72 63.0 318 -3.6 234 +1.9 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.1 93.0 5.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Memphis 3.3 5.8 35.0 23.0 15.8 10.5 5.5 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
SMU 3.4 6.2 33.6 22.5 15.6 10.1 6.4 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
Cincinnati 4.0 2.8 23.3 21.3 17.5 13.8 10.2 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2
Central Florida 4.4 1.8 15.6 20.4 20.2 16.4 11.8 6.8 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
Wichita St. 8.4 0.2 1.1 2.4 4.6 8.6 12.8 17.5 20.4 19.1 13.2
Tulsa 8.2 0.0 1.2 2.7 4.0 6.0 9.2 12.2 14.4 15.9 16.8 17.6
Temple 6.1 0.2 4.9 8.3 11.6 14.6 17.0 17.2 13.1 8.1 3.8 1.3
Tulane 5.8 0.5 5.1 9.5 13.1 15.8 18.0 16.1 11.7 6.6 2.8 0.7
East Carolina 8.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.2 9.3 13.9 17.7 19.6 17.5 12.1
South Florida 9.2 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.8 4.8 8.0 11.8 17.2 23.2 30.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 15 - 3 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 9.9 18.7 26.7 26.2 13.1
Memphis 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 6.7 13.5 19.4 23.2 18.3 10.9 3.8 0.6
SMU 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.6 13.7 19.5 21.4 17.3 10.7 4.1 1.1 0.1
Cincinnati 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.2 12.3 17.0 20.5 18.8 13.0 6.4 1.9 0.4
Central Florida 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.9 14.1 20.3 22.1 16.8 10.0 3.6 0.7 0.1
Wichita St. 6 - 12 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.9 13.5 19.5 21.5 17.9 11.4 4.9 1.4 0.2
Tulsa 6 - 12 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.2 12.7 16.5 18.0 15.4 11.9 6.9 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
Temple 8 - 10 0.3 1.9 5.9 13.4 19.2 20.5 18.3 12.1 5.8 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulane 8 - 10 0.8 4.3 11.0 18.9 21.4 19.3 13.7 6.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 1.1 5.5 12.9 20.1 21.7 18.3 11.7 6.0 2.1 0.5 0.1
South Florida 5 - 13 1.7 6.8 13.7 19.5 21.0 16.8 11.0 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 93.0% 84.9 7.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
Memphis 5.8% 2.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
SMU 6.2% 2.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 2.8% 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 1.8% 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wichita St.
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Temple 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0
South Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 99.4% 60.4% 39.1% 3   17.3 19.0 17.3 18.1 11.2 7.1 4.6 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.6 98.6%
Memphis 36.2% 14.5% 21.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.2 3.9 5.2 7.8 9.3 4.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 63.8 25.4%
SMU 17.4% 8.0% 9.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 5.3 4.9 0.8 0.0 82.6 10.2%
Cincinnati 13.7% 5.8% 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 4.7 3.9 0.4 0.0 86.3 8.4%
Central Florida 12.8% 5.2% 7.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.4 4.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 87.2 8.0%
Wichita St. 6.0% 2.9% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.0 3.2%
Tulsa 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%
Temple 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7 0.2%
Tulane 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%
East Carolina 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
South Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 99.4% 0.2% 99.4% 87.2% 58.7% 32.9% 17.4% 8.5% 4.1%
Memphis 36.2% 6.3% 33.1% 16.2% 5.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
SMU 17.4% 4.6% 15.1% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati 13.7% 4.0% 11.5% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 12.8% 4.2% 10.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 6.0% 1.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 30.7 51.2 16.6 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 36.0 51.1 12.0 0.8 0.0
2nd Round 92.3% 1.2 7.7 67.1 23.6 1.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 63.2% 0.7 36.8 58.3 4.9 0.1
Elite Eight 35.1% 0.4 64.9 34.3 0.8 0.0
Final Four 18.2% 0.2 81.8 18.1 0.1
Final Game 8.7% 0.1 91.3 8.7 0.0
Champion 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2