Central Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#81
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#68
Pace68.0#196
Improvement-1.7#252

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#84
First Shot+1.4#136
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#45
Layup/Dunks-0.5#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement-2.6#317

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#78
First Shot+4.3#53
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#226
Layups/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#238
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement+0.9#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 14.4% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.0% 9.3% 3.4%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.2
.500 or above 97.3% 98.8% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 79.9% 51.3%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 2.0%
First Four4.2% 4.8% 2.2%
First Round10.4% 11.8% 5.7%
Second Round3.7% 4.3% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 35 - 311 - 11
Quad 47 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 306   Robert Morris W 69-59 94%     1 - 0 -0.8 -8.6 +8.1
  Nov 13, 2021 58   @ Miami (FL) W 95-89 35%     2 - 0 +17.1 +18.7 -1.9
  Nov 16, 2021 238   Jacksonville W 63-54 90%     3 - 0 +2.3 +0.1 +3.6
  Nov 20, 2021 270   @ Evansville W 75-59 84%     4 - 0 +12.5 +9.6 +4.5
  Nov 27, 2021 30   Oklahoma L 62-65 41%     4 - 1 +6.5 -0.4 +6.7
  Dec 01, 2021 8   @ Auburn L 68-85 11%     4 - 2 +3.3 -2.4 +7.5
  Dec 05, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 81-45 98%     5 - 2 +19.5 +0.7 +17.9
  Dec 11, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 83-68 92%     6 - 2 +6.4 +5.8 +0.4
  Dec 15, 2021 122   @ Temple W 65-48 57%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +22.4 -0.6 +24.0
  Dec 22, 2021 298   North Alabama W 75-64 94%     8 - 2 +0.5 +5.9 -4.7
  Dec 30, 2021 24   Michigan W 85-71 38%     9 - 2 +24.3 +21.3 +3.9
  Jan 02, 2022 63   @ SMU L 60-72 36%     9 - 3 1 - 1 -1.3 -9.4 +8.0
  Jan 05, 2022 122   Temple L 62-66 74%     9 - 4 1 - 2 -3.6 -2.8 -1.3
  Jan 12, 2022 41   Memphis W 74-64 46%     10 - 4 2 - 2 +18.0 +2.8 +14.9
  Jan 15, 2022 191   @ South Florida L 51-75 72%     10 - 5 2 - 3 -22.8 -16.9 -5.7
  Jan 18, 2022 153   @ East Carolina W 92-85 OT 65%     11 - 5 3 - 3 +10.1 +7.8 +1.4
  Jan 22, 2022 135   Tulane W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 26, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. L 65-67 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 9   Houston L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 03, 2022 191   South Florida W 68-57 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 41   @ Memphis L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 08, 2022 87   Wichita St. W 68-65 63%    
  Feb 14, 2022 121   Tulsa W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 17, 2022 9   @ Houston L 61-74 11%    
  Feb 20, 2022 153   East Carolina W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 23, 2022 74   Cincinnati W 69-67 60%    
  Mar 03, 2022 135   @ Tulane W 70-67 58%    
  Mar 06, 2022 121   @ Tulsa W 68-66 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.0 6.6 2.6 0.3 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.5 8.8 2.8 0.2 20.4 3rd
4th 0.6 6.6 10.0 2.9 0.2 20.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.7 9.3 3.2 0.1 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 6.8 3.0 0.2 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.5 2.8 0.2 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.3 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.9 14.1 20.3 22.1 16.8 10.0 3.6 0.7 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 63.6% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.0% 0.8    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.7% 87.3% 15.7% 71.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.0%
13-5 3.6% 65.5% 14.9% 50.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.3 59.5%
12-6 10.0% 37.8% 10.8% 27.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.0 6.2 30.3%
11-7 16.8% 18.2% 7.7% 10.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.1 13.7 11.4%
10-8 22.1% 7.4% 5.0% 2.4% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 20.4 2.5%
9-9 20.3% 4.2% 3.5% 0.7% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 19.4 0.7%
8-10 14.1% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.9 0.0%
7-11 7.9% 1.2% 1.2% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8
6-12 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.8% 5.2% 7.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.4 4.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 87.2 8.0%