Cincinnati
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#74
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#74
Pace68.0#195
Improvement-1.7#253

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#108
First Shot-1.2#223
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#6
Layup/Dunks-0.4#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
Freethrows-0.8#249
Improvement+1.1#105

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#55
First Shot+5.8#30
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#234
Layups/Dunks+0.1#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#99
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement-2.9#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 15.6% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.4% 9.7% 4.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 11.1
.500 or above 99.1% 99.7% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 83.9% 58.2%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 2.0%
First Four4.0% 4.5% 2.3%
First Round11.5% 13.1% 6.3%
Second Round4.1% 4.7% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 36 - 312 - 10
Quad 48 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 270   Evansville W 65-43 92%     1 - 0 +13.5 -8.6 +22.8
  Nov 13, 2021 201   Georgia W 73-68 86%     2 - 0 +0.9 -3.5 +4.4
  Nov 16, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 89-66 97%     3 - 0 +9.1 +10.7 -2.5
  Nov 18, 2021 299   Presbyterian W 79-45 94%     4 - 0 +23.5 +4.0 +20.2
  Nov 22, 2021 11   Illinois W 71-51 19%     5 - 0 +36.7 +8.7 +29.1
  Nov 23, 2021 31   Arkansas L 67-73 33%     5 - 1 +5.9 -3.4 +9.6
  Nov 27, 2021 137   Monmouth L 59-61 79%     5 - 2 -2.9 -7.2 +4.1
  Dec 01, 2021 163   @ Miami (OH) W 59-58 68%     6 - 2 +3.6 -5.6 +9.3
  Dec 05, 2021 227   Bryant W 73-58 89%     7 - 2 +9.3 -5.3 +14.4
  Dec 11, 2021 19   @ Xavier L 63-83 20%     7 - 3 -3.7 +2.0 -7.0
  Dec 14, 2021 320   Florida A&M W 77-50 96%     8 - 3 +14.4 +3.4 +12.2
  Dec 21, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 86-75 94%     9 - 3 +0.9 +0.6 -0.9
  Jan 01, 2022 135   Tulane L 60-68 78%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -8.6 -12.4 +3.8
  Jan 06, 2022 63   SMU W 77-60 57%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +22.7 +7.4 +15.8
  Jan 09, 2022 41   @ Memphis L 80-87 29%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +6.1 +14.4 -8.4
  Jan 12, 2022 153   East Carolina W 79-71 81%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +6.0 -0.3 +5.8
  Jan 16, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. W 61-57 44%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +13.1 +5.4 +8.4
  Jan 20, 2022 121   Tulsa W 69-62 76%    
  Jan 25, 2022 122   @ Temple W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 30, 2022 153   @ East Carolina W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 03, 2022 41   Memphis L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 06, 2022 9   Houston L 62-70 26%    
  Feb 09, 2022 191   @ South Florida W 64-58 70%    
  Feb 12, 2022 121   @ Tulsa W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 17, 2022 87   Wichita St. W 66-63 63%    
  Feb 20, 2022 122   Temple W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 23, 2022 81   @ Central Florida L 67-69 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 191   South Florida W 66-55 86%    
  Mar 03, 2022 63   @ SMU L 70-73 36%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.7 9.3 5.0 1.0 0.1 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 7.3 9.3 3.2 0.3 0.0 21.3 3rd
4th 0.4 5.5 8.9 2.6 0.1 17.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 7.6 2.7 0.2 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 6.0 2.6 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.9 2.5 0.1 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.2 12.3 17.0 20.5 18.8 13.0 6.4 1.9 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 79.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 48.0% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 17.9% 1.2    0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 99.5% 17.9% 81.5% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-4 1.9% 78.0% 17.5% 60.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 73.3%
13-5 6.4% 53.6% 13.1% 40.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 46.6%
12-6 13.0% 28.5% 10.6% 17.9% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.0 9.3 20.0%
11-7 18.8% 13.6% 7.6% 5.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.1 16.2 6.4%
10-8 20.5% 6.6% 4.9% 1.7% 11.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 19.1 1.8%
9-9 17.0% 2.9% 2.6% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 16.5 0.3%
8-10 12.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.1 0.1%
7-11 6.2% 1.5% 1.5% 12.5 0.1 0.0 6.1
6-12 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-13 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 5.8% 7.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 4.7 3.9 0.4 0.0 86.3 8.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 9.1 9.1 48.5 15.2 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.8 10.0 48.0 12.0 18.0 6.0 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 7.9 5.3 35.1 21.1 38.6