Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#87
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#106
Pace67.5#215
Improvement-3.2#308

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#162
First Shot-0.4#193
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#105
Layup/Dunks-0.3#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement-0.2#183

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot+3.4#69
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#20
Layups/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#125
Freethrows+0.1#185
Improvement-3.0#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 7.8% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 4.5% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.6
.500 or above 79.3% 88.9% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 9.9% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.7% 16.2% 37.1%
First Four1.9% 2.6% 1.0%
First Round4.9% 6.3% 2.8%
Second Round1.6% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 9
Quad 36 - 410 - 13
Quad 46 - 016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. W 60-57 76%     1 - 0 +2.3 -6.3 +8.9
  Nov 13, 2021 149   South Alabama W 64-58 78%     2 - 0 +4.3 -7.7 +12.1
  Nov 16, 2021 171   Tarleton St. W 65-51 81%     3 - 0 +11.1 -2.8 +14.8
  Nov 19, 2021 2   Arizona L 78-82 OT 12%     3 - 1 +15.4 -1.1 +17.3
  Nov 21, 2021 108   UNLV W 74-73 59%     4 - 1 +5.3 +2.8 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2021 126   @ Missouri W 61-55 56%     5 - 1 +11.1 -7.4 +18.6
  Dec 01, 2021 46   @ Oklahoma St. W 60-51 28%     6 - 1 +21.5 +0.6 +21.4
  Dec 05, 2021 55   Kansas St. L 59-65 51%     6 - 2 +0.4 -8.4 +8.8
  Dec 11, 2021 231   Norfolk St. W 71-58 88%     7 - 2 +6.9 +3.7 +4.3
  Dec 14, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 82-63 92%     8 - 2 +9.9 +5.5 +4.6
  Dec 18, 2021 83   North Texas L 52-62 58%     8 - 3 -5.5 -11.5 +4.9
  Dec 22, 2021 303   Prairie View W 102-66 94%     9 - 3 +25.2 +11.9 +9.6
  Jan 01, 2022 41   Memphis L 64-82 44%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -10.0 -10.6 +2.3
  Jan 08, 2022 9   @ Houston L 66-76 11%     9 - 5 0 - 2 +10.0 +5.1 +4.4
  Jan 12, 2022 135   Tulane L 67-68 75%     9 - 6 0 - 3 -1.6 -1.8 +0.2
  Jan 16, 2022 74   Cincinnati L 57-61 56%     9 - 7 0 - 4 +0.9 -2.7 +2.9
  Jan 26, 2022 81   Central Florida W 67-65 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 135   @ Tulane W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 01, 2022 121   Tulsa W 67-61 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 63   SMU W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 08, 2022 81   @ Central Florida L 65-68 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 191   South Florida W 64-54 84%    
  Feb 17, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati L 63-66 37%    
  Feb 20, 2022 9   Houston L 61-69 23%    
  Feb 27, 2022 41   @ Memphis L 68-74 26%    
  Mar 02, 2022 121   @ Tulsa W 65-64 52%    
  Mar 05, 2022 153   East Carolina W 73-64 80%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 6 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 1.9 0.1 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 5.3 0.8 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 7.7 3.1 0.1 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 9.0 6.4 0.4 17.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 8.6 8.7 1.1 20.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.1 7.9 1.8 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.8 4.5 1.2 0.1 13.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.9 13.5 19.5 21.5 17.9 11.4 4.9 1.4 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 89.7% 8.0% 81.6% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.8%
10-8 1.4% 62.0% 13.5% 48.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 56.1%
9-9 4.9% 31.4% 8.2% 23.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 25.3%
8-10 11.4% 12.9% 5.5% 7.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 9.9 7.8%
7-11 17.9% 4.7% 3.1% 1.6% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 17.0 1.7%
6-12 21.5% 2.5% 2.3% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 21.0 0.1%
5-13 19.5% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 19.1 0.0%
4-14 13.5% 1.1% 1.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.3
3-15 6.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 6.8
2-16 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.0% 2.9% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.0 3.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 90.6% 7.9 37.5 25.0 25.0 3.1