SMU
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#63
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#67
Pace71.6#96
Improvement+3.3#46

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#34
First Shot+5.7#34
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#142
Layup/Dunks+2.3#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#40
Freethrows+1.9#51
Improvement+1.2#97

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#110
First Shot+5.7#31
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#356
Layups/Dunks+2.5#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows+1.5#80
Improvement+2.1#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 27.6% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.2% 18.9% 6.4%
Average Seed 10.6 10.1 11.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 96.1% 84.3%
Conference Champion 6.2% 12.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.6% 6.8% 3.6%
First Round15.1% 24.3% 11.0%
Second Round5.7% 9.8% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 39 - 314 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 323   McNeese St. W 86-62 96%     1 - 0 +11.2 -5.6 +13.5
  Nov 12, 2021 40   @ Oregon L 63-86 32%     1 - 1 -9.9 -6.0 -3.7
  Nov 15, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 95-48 98%     2 - 1 +31.3 +12.4 +19.0
  Nov 18, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 78-61 95%     3 - 1 +6.2 -5.5 +10.8
  Nov 21, 2021 126   Missouri L 75-80 OT 71%     3 - 2 -2.4 -4.3 +2.5
  Nov 22, 2021 131   Loyola Marymount L 70-76 71%     3 - 3 -3.7 +8.2 -12.7
  Nov 24, 2021 212   Sam Houston St. W 75-66 88%     4 - 3 +4.2 +1.9 +2.5
  Nov 28, 2021 258   Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 92%     5 - 3 -0.5 -5.0 +4.5
  Dec 01, 2021 108   UNLV W 83-64 73%     6 - 3 +20.8 +13.2 +8.0
  Dec 04, 2021 85   Vanderbilt W 84-72 65%     7 - 3 +16.2 +19.0 -2.2
  Dec 08, 2021 72   Dayton W 77-69 62%     8 - 3 +13.0 +8.3 +4.8
  Dec 19, 2021 193   @ New Mexico W 90-72 75%     9 - 3 +19.1 +13.5 +5.1
  Dec 29, 2021 121   @ Tulsa W 74-69 61%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +10.4 +8.3 +2.4
  Jan 02, 2022 81   Central Florida W 72-60 64%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +16.6 +1.8 +14.9
  Jan 06, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati L 60-77 43%     11 - 4 2 - 1 -7.1 -4.5 -3.1
  Jan 12, 2022 191   South Florida W 77-65 87%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +8.2 +11.6 -2.7
  Jan 15, 2022 135   @ Tulane W 75-66 64%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +13.5 +4.2 +9.2
  Jan 20, 2022 41   @ Memphis L 75-80 31%    
  Jan 26, 2022 191   @ South Florida W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 122   Temple W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 05, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 09, 2022 9   Houston L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 12, 2022 153   @ East Carolina W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 16, 2022 122   @ Temple W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 20, 2022 41   Memphis W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 23, 2022 121   Tulsa W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 27, 2022 9   @ Houston L 65-77 13%    
  Mar 03, 2022 74   Cincinnati W 73-70 64%    
  Mar 06, 2022 135   Tulane W 77-68 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 8.5 13.4 8.2 1.8 0.1 33.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.7 10.1 3.3 0.3 22.5 3rd
4th 0.3 4.6 7.9 2.6 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.8 2.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.0 0.1 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.1 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.6 13.7 19.5 21.4 17.3 10.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 87.3% 1.0    0.7 0.3
14-4 57.4% 2.4    1.1 1.2 0.0
13-5 20.6% 2.2    0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 2.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 18.8% 81.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 90.8% 18.2% 72.7% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 88.8%
14-4 4.1% 71.4% 18.9% 52.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 64.8%
13-5 10.7% 44.1% 13.7% 30.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.0 6.0 35.2%
12-6 17.3% 24.0% 11.4% 12.7% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.2 13.2 14.3%
11-7 21.4% 11.4% 8.2% 3.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.2 18.9 3.5%
10-8 19.5% 6.7% 5.9% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 18.2 0.9%
9-9 13.7% 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.2 0.3%
8-10 7.6% 2.2% 2.2% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
7-11 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.4% 8.0% 9.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 5.3 4.9 0.8 0.0 82.6 10.2%