South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#191
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#234
Pace63.0#318
Improvement+4.1#32

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#317
First Shot-5.5#319
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#176
Layup/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#347
Freethrows-0.9#255
Improvement+3.0#31

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#72
First Shot+4.9#39
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#250
Layups/Dunks+2.6#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#20
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#182
Freethrows-0.3#213
Improvement+1.0#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 0.7% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 6.4% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.6% 33.0% 56.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 22 - 72 - 14
Quad 34 - 56 - 19
Quad 45 - 210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 75-54 91%     1 - 0 +4.5 +0.0 +5.4
  Nov 13, 2021 233   Georgia Southern L 41-53 69%     1 - 1 -18.4 -23.9 +2.9
  Nov 15, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 56-54 76%     2 - 1 -6.6 -17.5 +11.0
  Nov 19, 2021 8   Auburn L 52-58 7%     2 - 2 +9.3 -9.2 +17.9
  Nov 24, 2021 332   Hampton W 58-52 88%     3 - 2 -7.8 -10.3 +3.4
  Nov 29, 2021 138   @ Boston College L 49-64 30%     3 - 3 -10.9 -13.3 -0.3
  Dec 03, 2021 346   South Carolina St. L 64-65 91%     3 - 4 -16.9 -14.2 -2.7
  Dec 14, 2021 314   Austin Peay W 60-51 82%     4 - 4 -2.2 -16.3 +14.3
  Dec 18, 2021 35   Florida L 55-66 12%     4 - 5 +0.5 -8.6 +8.3
  Dec 22, 2021 29   BYU L 39-54 11%     4 - 6 -2.8 -20.5 +15.2
  Dec 23, 2021 161   @ Hawaii W 76-69 35%     5 - 6 +9.7 +5.1 +4.7
  Dec 25, 2021 66   Wyoming L 57-77 19%     5 - 7 -11.9 -9.6 -3.5
  Jan 05, 2022 9   Houston L 66-83 7%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -2.0 +6.3 -10.0
  Jan 08, 2022 135   @ Tulane L 54-68 29%     5 - 9 0 - 2 -9.5 -14.3 +4.2
  Jan 12, 2022 63   @ SMU L 65-77 13%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -1.3 -0.7 -1.3
  Jan 15, 2022 81   Central Florida W 75-51 28%     6 - 10 1 - 3 +28.6 +4.0 +24.4
  Jan 18, 2022 9   @ Houston L 55-74 3%     6 - 11 1 - 4 +1.0 -7.6 +8.3
  Jan 22, 2022 122   Temple L 59-61 45%    
  Jan 26, 2022 63   SMU L 62-69 27%    
  Jan 29, 2022 121   @ Tulsa L 57-64 25%    
  Feb 03, 2022 81   @ Central Florida L 57-68 14%    
  Feb 09, 2022 74   Cincinnati L 58-64 30%    
  Feb 12, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. L 54-64 16%    
  Feb 15, 2022 135   Tulane L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 17, 2022 153   East Carolina W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 121   Tulsa L 59-61 45%    
  Feb 23, 2022 153   @ East Carolina L 62-66 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati L 55-66 14%    
  Mar 03, 2022 41   Memphis L 62-71 21%    
  Mar 06, 2022 122   @ Temple L 57-64 25%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 4.9 1.4 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 6.6 3.6 0.1 11.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 8.0 6.8 0.6 17.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.6 9.3 9.3 1.7 0.0 23.2 10th
11th 1.6 6.6 11.0 8.6 2.2 0.1 30.0 11th
Total 1.7 6.8 13.7 19.5 21.0 16.8 11.0 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
8-10 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 16.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 16.8
5-13 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.0
4-14 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.5
3-15 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
2-16 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%