Memphis
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#41
Expected Predictive Rating+6.4#88
Pace77.5#17
Improvement-3.7#324

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#47
First Shot+3.6#76
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#61
Layup/Dunks+3.3#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#168
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#234
Freethrows+1.7#59
Improvement-1.0#240

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#52
First Shot+4.9#41
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#147
Layups/Dunks+5.4#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#297
Freethrows-0.1#203
Improvement-2.7#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 3.3% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 41.7% 23.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.4% 30.6% 14.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 10.4
.500 or above 95.0% 97.6% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 94.3% 79.3%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four6.3% 6.9% 4.9%
First Round33.1% 38.4% 21.2%
Second Round16.2% 19.3% 9.3%
Sweet Sixteen5.4% 6.5% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.3% 1.0%
Final Four0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 24 - 47 - 9
Quad 38 - 315 - 12
Quad 43 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 89-65 96%     1 - 0 +13.9 +11.0 +2.6
  Nov 13, 2021 327   NC Central W 90-51 98%     2 - 0 +25.5 -0.9 +20.6
  Nov 16, 2021 71   Saint Louis W 90-74 70%     3 - 0 +21.2 +5.2 +13.4
  Nov 19, 2021 112   Western Kentucky W 74-62 80%     4 - 0 +13.6 -7.1 +19.4
  Nov 24, 2021 32   Virginia Tech W 69-61 46%     5 - 0 +19.6 +2.1 +17.5
  Nov 26, 2021 36   Iowa St. L 59-78 47%     5 - 1 -7.7 -7.1 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2021 201   @ Georgia L 79-82 82%     5 - 2 -2.1 +6.0 -8.2
  Dec 04, 2021 109   @ Mississippi L 63-67 64%     5 - 3 +2.8 -6.9 +9.9
  Dec 10, 2021 51   Murray St. L 72-74 64%     5 - 4 +4.8 +5.5 -0.8
  Dec 14, 2021 16   Alabama W 92-78 44%     6 - 4 +26.0 +15.6 +9.2
  Dec 29, 2021 135   @ Tulane L 84-85 72%     6 - 5 0 - 1 +3.5 +11.9 -8.5
  Jan 01, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. W 82-64 56%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +27.1 +9.1 +16.4
  Jan 04, 2022 121   Tulsa W 67-64 83%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +3.4 -6.8 +10.2
  Jan 09, 2022 74   Cincinnati W 87-80 71%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +11.9 +18.8 -6.8
  Jan 12, 2022 81   @ Central Florida L 64-74 54%     9 - 6 3 - 2 -0.4 -5.9 +5.9
  Jan 15, 2022 153   @ East Carolina L 71-72 76%     9 - 7 3 - 3 +2.1 -2.3 +4.4
  Jan 20, 2022 63   SMU W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 23, 2022 121   @ Tulsa W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 27, 2022 153   East Carolina W 82-69 89%    
  Feb 03, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 05, 2022 81   Central Florida W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 09, 2022 135   Tulane W 79-68 86%    
  Feb 12, 2022 9   @ Houston L 68-77 18%    
  Feb 20, 2022 63   @ SMU L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 24, 2022 122   Temple W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 27, 2022 87   Wichita St. W 74-68 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 191   @ South Florida W 71-62 79%    
  Mar 06, 2022 9   Houston L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.2 0.6 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 9.1 14.1 8.4 1.6 35.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.3 11.1 3.4 0.2 23.0 3rd
4th 0.3 4.7 8.0 2.7 0.1 15.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 6.1 2.3 0.2 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 6.7 13.5 19.4 23.2 18.3 10.9 3.8 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
14-4 57.6% 2.2    1.1 1.1 0.0
13-5 21.0% 2.3    0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.8% 96.1% 30.1% 66.0% 7.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 94.4%
13-5 10.9% 80.2% 23.3% 56.9% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.2 74.2%
12-6 18.3% 57.8% 19.0% 38.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 7.7 47.9%
11-7 23.2% 33.2% 15.2% 18.0% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.1 1.8 0.1 15.5 21.2%
10-8 19.4% 16.0% 10.4% 5.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1 16.3 6.3%
9-9 13.5% 10.0% 8.8% 1.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.2 1.3%
8-10 6.7% 4.7% 4.7% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.4
7-11 2.7% 3.9% 3.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
6-12 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.2% 14.5% 21.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.2 3.9 5.2 7.8 9.3 4.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 63.8 25.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 12.0 17.4 52.2 15.2 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.8 2.6 2.6 34.8 36.5 18.3 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.9 6.7 31.7 30.0 30.0 1.7