Houston
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#9
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#16
Pace63.6#312
Improvement-3.7#326

Offense
Total Offense+9.7#9
First Shot+6.5#24
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#14
Layup/Dunks+3.2#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-0.1#177

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#15
First Shot+7.3#12
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#142
Layups/Dunks+7.5#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#258
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement-3.6#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 17.3% 17.8% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 36.3% 37.1% 11.9%
Top 4 Seed 71.8% 72.7% 41.3%
Top 6 Seed 90.1% 90.5% 73.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.5% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.6% 98.6% 96.8%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.0% 93.4% 80.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round99.4% 99.4% 98.0%
Second Round87.2% 87.5% 76.6%
Sweet Sixteen58.7% 59.1% 44.5%
Elite Eight32.9% 33.3% 19.3%
Final Four17.4% 17.7% 8.0%
Championship Game8.5% 8.6% 4.3%
National Champion4.1% 4.1% 2.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 13 - 3
Quad 29 - 112 - 4
Quad 311 - 022 - 4
Quad 46 - 028 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 132   Hofstra W 83-75 OT 94%     1 - 0 +7.7 +5.9 +1.7
  Nov 12, 2021 167   Rice W 79-46 96%     2 - 0 +30.4 +7.6 +25.2
  Nov 16, 2021 67   Virginia W 67-47 87%     3 - 0 +25.5 +11.0 +18.4
  Nov 22, 2021 118   Butler W 70-52 90%     4 - 0 +21.5 +7.2 +15.8
  Nov 23, 2021 25   Wisconsin L 63-65 68%     4 - 1 +10.8 +3.1 +7.5
  Nov 24, 2021 40   Oregon W 78-49 75%     5 - 1 +39.6 +11.5 +29.3
  Nov 30, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 99-58 99%     6 - 1 +25.3 +14.8 +9.9
  Dec 03, 2021 227   Bryant W 111-44 97%     7 - 1 +61.3 +27.4 +29.9
  Dec 06, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 77-45 98%     8 - 1 +22.9 +1.7 +22.0
  Dec 11, 2021 16   @ Alabama L 82-83 52%     8 - 2 +16.0 +15.3 +0.7
  Dec 14, 2021 165   Louisiana W 71-56 96%     9 - 2 +12.5 +1.3 +11.9
  Dec 18, 2021 46   Oklahoma St. W 72-61 76%     10 - 2 +21.0 +8.1 +12.9
  Dec 22, 2021 150   Texas St. W 80-47 95%     11 - 2 +31.3 +18.4 +18.2
  Jan 02, 2022 122   @ Temple W 66-61 87%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +10.4 +7.4 +3.9
  Jan 05, 2022 191   @ South Florida W 83-66 93%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +18.2 +23.7 -3.8
  Jan 08, 2022 87   Wichita St. W 76-66 89%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +14.1 +11.3 +3.2
  Jan 15, 2022 121   @ Tulsa W 66-64 87%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +7.4 +2.8 +4.8
  Jan 18, 2022 191   South Florida W 74-55 97%     16 - 2 5 - 0 +15.2 +5.5 +10.1
  Jan 22, 2022 153   East Carolina W 79-60 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 81   @ Central Florida W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 02, 2022 135   Tulane W 77-59 96%    
  Feb 06, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati W 70-62 74%    
  Feb 09, 2022 63   @ SMU W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 41   Memphis W 77-68 82%    
  Feb 17, 2022 81   Central Florida W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 20, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 23, 2022 135   @ Tulane W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 27, 2022 63   SMU W 77-65 87%    
  Mar 03, 2022 122   Temple W 74-57 95%    
  Mar 06, 2022 41   @ Memphis W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 26 - 4 15 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 7.5 18.1 26.7 26.2 13.1 93.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 9.9 18.7 26.7 26.2 13.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 13.1    13.1
16-2 100.0% 26.2    26.2
15-3 99.9% 26.7    26.2 0.5
14-4 96.7% 18.1    15.2 2.8 0.0
13-5 76.0% 7.5    3.8 3.1 0.6 0.0
12-6 34.5% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
11-7 4.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 1.3% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 93.0% 93.0 84.9 7.0 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 13.1% 100.0% 70.4% 29.6% 1.6 7.2 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 26.2% 100.0% 67.4% 32.5% 2.2 7.8 9.0 5.7 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 26.7% 99.9% 60.7% 39.2% 3.4 2.1 4.8 7.5 7.6 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 18.7% 99.4% 54.3% 45.2% 4.6 0.2 0.8 2.6 5.7 4.8 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 98.8%
13-5 9.9% 99.2% 49.2% 50.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
12-6 3.7% 97.1% 43.0% 54.1% 7.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.0%
11-7 1.2% 89.5% 41.2% 48.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 82.1%
10-8 0.3% 70.5% 27.6% 42.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 59.3%
9-9 0.0% 54.5% 27.3% 27.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.5%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.4% 60.4% 39.1% 3.5 17.3 19.0 17.3 18.1 11.2 7.1 4.6 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.6 98.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.2% 100.0% 1.4 63.1 31.2 5.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 1.8 41.0 38.8 15.2 4.2 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 2.0 33.3 36.4 24.7 5.2 0.4