Tulane
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#135
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#161
Pace68.4#184
Improvement+4.4#24

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#159
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#325
Layup/Dunks+0.2#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#124
Freethrows+0.7#124
Improvement+2.2#61

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#134
First Shot+2.3#101
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#262
Layups/Dunks+4.0#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#296
Freethrows+0.0#190
Improvement+2.2#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 12.8 13.8
.500 or above 11.9% 26.5% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 68.4% 36.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 9
Quad 34 - 68 - 14
Quad 44 - 212 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 70-67 88%     1 - 0 -7.8 -7.5 -0.2
  Nov 13, 2021 240   Southern L 70-73 80%     1 - 1 -9.8 -9.4 -0.2
  Nov 17, 2021 42   @ Florida St. L 54-59 15%     1 - 2 +7.9 -5.3 +12.6
  Nov 22, 2021 158   Drexel W 90-87 OT 56%     2 - 2 +3.3 +5.2 -2.2
  Nov 23, 2021 88   Toledo L 67-68 33%     2 - 3 +5.5 -5.6 +11.1
  Nov 24, 2021 186   Valparaiso L 64-68 61%     2 - 4 -4.9 -6.6 +1.5
  Nov 30, 2021 203   @ College of Charleston L 77-81 55%     2 - 5 -3.3 -2.0 -1.0
  Dec 04, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 85-64 85%     3 - 5 +11.9 +9.7 +2.7
  Dec 07, 2021 203   College of Charleston L 72-86 73%     3 - 6 -18.3 -9.0 -8.1
  Dec 29, 2021 41   Memphis W 85-84 28%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +9.0 +14.4 -5.3
  Jan 01, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati W 68-60 22%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +17.9 +2.0 +16.0
  Jan 05, 2022 153   @ East Carolina L 80-88 OT 46%     5 - 7 2 - 1 -4.9 -1.2 -2.9
  Jan 08, 2022 191   South Florida W 68-54 71%     6 - 7 3 - 1 +10.2 +0.5 +10.2
  Jan 12, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. W 68-67 25%     7 - 7 4 - 1 +10.1 +6.5 +3.7
  Jan 15, 2022 63   SMU L 66-75 36%     7 - 8 4 - 2 -3.3 -6.5 +3.3
  Jan 22, 2022 81   @ Central Florida L 65-73 22%    
  Jan 26, 2022 121   Tulsa W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 87   Wichita St. L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 02, 2022 9   @ Houston L 59-77 4%    
  Feb 05, 2022 153   East Carolina W 73-69 66%    
  Feb 09, 2022 41   @ Memphis L 68-79 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 122   Temple W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 15, 2022 191   @ South Florida W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 23, 2022 9   Houston L 61-74 12%    
  Feb 27, 2022 122   @ Temple L 66-69 36%    
  Mar 03, 2022 81   Central Florida L 67-70 42%    
  Mar 06, 2022 63   @ SMU L 68-77 20%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.3 3.5 0.8 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.5 5.4 5.9 1.2 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 8.7 2.5 0.1 15.8 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 10.6 3.9 0.3 18.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 9.0 5.4 0.3 16.1 7th
8th 0.4 5.0 5.7 0.6 11.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 3.8 0.8 6.6 9th
10th 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.8 4.3 11.0 18.9 21.4 19.3 13.7 6.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 94.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 71.4% 0.1    0.1 0.1
13-5 21.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 6.6% 2.2% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.5%
13-5 0.9% 9.5% 7.2% 2.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.5%
12-6 2.7% 3.4% 3.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-7 6.8% 2.1% 2.1% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6
10-8 13.7% 1.6% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.5
9-9 19.3% 0.8% 0.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.1
8-10 21.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.1 0.0 21.2
7-11 18.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 18.8
6-12 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%