Tulsa
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#121
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#200
Pace64.7#301
Improvement+3.7#40

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#150
First Shot+1.3#141
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#200
Layup/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
Freethrows-2.0#311
Improvement-0.7#223

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#116
First Shot+0.9#150
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#90
Layups/Dunks+3.3#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#344
Freethrows+1.5#83
Improvement+4.3#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 14.5% 28.6% 10.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.4% 25.7% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.7% 14.9% 33.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 23 - 63 - 11
Quad 35 - 68 - 17
Quad 45 - 113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 82-75 95%     1 - 0 -8.7 -3.1 -5.8
  Nov 13, 2021 244   Air Force L 58-59 82%     1 - 1 -8.0 -7.9 -0.3
  Nov 15, 2021 124   Oregon St. W 64-58 60%     2 - 1 +6.4 -1.1 +8.4
  Nov 20, 2021 89   Rhode Island W 77-71 37%     3 - 1 +12.4 +15.5 -2.5
  Nov 21, 2021 111   Utah L 58-72 45%     3 - 2 -9.8 -9.1 -1.9
  Nov 26, 2021 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-63 89%     4 - 2 +3.7 -0.8 +4.6
  Nov 29, 2021 120   @ Oral Roberts L 80-87 39%     4 - 3 -1.3 +8.6 -10.0
  Dec 03, 2021 54   @ Boise St. L 58-63 21%     4 - 4 +6.6 -4.4 +10.8
  Dec 07, 2021 131   Loyola Marymount L 55-60 62%     4 - 5 -5.2 -15.5 +10.2
  Dec 11, 2021 133   Southern Illinois W 69-65 63%     5 - 5 +3.6 +5.5 -1.4
  Dec 16, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 83-62 87%     6 - 5 +11.9 +8.3 +4.3
  Dec 29, 2021 63   SMU L 69-74 39%     6 - 6 0 - 1 +0.7 +0.7 -0.3
  Jan 04, 2022 41   @ Memphis L 64-67 17%     6 - 7 0 - 2 +10.1 -3.9 +14.0
  Jan 12, 2022 122   Temple L 64-69 60%     6 - 8 0 - 3 -4.6 -5.4 +0.6
  Jan 15, 2022 9   Houston L 64-66 13%     6 - 9 0 - 4 +13.0 +4.1 +8.7
  Jan 20, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati L 62-69 24%    
  Jan 23, 2022 41   Memphis L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 26, 2022 135   @ Tulane L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 191   South Florida W 64-57 75%    
  Feb 01, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. L 61-67 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 122   @ Temple L 64-66 39%    
  Feb 08, 2022 153   East Carolina W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 74   Cincinnati L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 14, 2022 81   @ Central Florida L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 191   @ South Florida W 61-59 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 63   @ SMU L 67-75 22%    
  Feb 26, 2022 153   @ East Carolina L 68-69 47%    
  Mar 02, 2022 87   Wichita St. L 64-65 48%    
  Mar 06, 2022 81   Central Florida L 66-68 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 1.4 0.2 4.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.7 1.3 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 7.1 3.0 0.1 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 7.5 5.1 0.3 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 6.8 6.9 0.9 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 6.2 6.9 1.6 0.0 16.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 3.5 6.2 5.3 1.4 0.0 17.6 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.2 12.7 16.5 18.0 15.4 11.9 6.9 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 7.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 10.5% 10.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 4.4% 4.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.5% 5.0% 5.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
9-9 6.9% 2.3% 2.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.8
8-10 11.9% 1.8% 1.8% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.7
7-11 15.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.3
6-12 18.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 17.9
5-13 16.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.5
4-14 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.7
3-15 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
2-16 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%