East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#153
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#118
Pace70.0#141
Improvement-0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#141
First Shot+2.3#107
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#263
Layup/Dunks+0.9#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows+1.6#70
Improvement+0.6#145

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#192
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#141
Layups/Dunks-2.3#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#304
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement-0.6#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.5 13.7
.500 or above 61.3% 86.7% 60.5%
.500 or above in Conference 8.7% 26.6% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.4% 8.4% 23.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 2.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 62 - 10
Quad 34 - 46 - 15
Quad 49 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 346   South Carolina St. W 70-62 93%     1 - 0 -7.9 -16.6 +7.8
  Nov 12, 2021 286   Canisius W 83-71 83%     2 - 0 +2.3 -1.7 +2.9
  Nov 14, 2021 312   Western Carolina W 95-79 86%     3 - 0 +4.8 +8.8 -5.0
  Nov 18, 2021 30   Oklahoma L 74-79 14%     3 - 1 +7.0 +10.1 -3.3
  Nov 19, 2021 184   Old Dominion W 73-60 56%     4 - 1 +12.1 +10.7 +3.3
  Nov 21, 2021 53   Davidson L 67-76 21%     4 - 2 +0.2 -1.8 +1.4
  Nov 27, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 70-68 85%     5 - 2 -8.7 -2.1 -6.5
  Nov 30, 2021 184   Old Dominion W 63-62 65%     6 - 2 -2.4 -5.4 +3.1
  Dec 04, 2021 223   Gardner-Webb W 62-52 72%     7 - 2 +4.6 -11.3 +15.9
  Dec 07, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 82-71 81%     8 - 2 +2.4 +3.7 -1.6
  Dec 17, 2021 104   Liberty L 64-74 35%     8 - 3 -5.5 -8.3 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2021 309   Southern Miss W 68-67 86%     9 - 3 -10.0 -4.1 -5.9
  Jan 05, 2022 135   Tulane W 88-80 OT 54%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +7.4 +5.4 +1.1
  Jan 08, 2022 122   @ Temple L 75-78 32%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +2.4 +9.1 -6.8
  Jan 12, 2022 74   @ Cincinnati L 71-79 19%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +1.9 +0.6 +1.8
  Jan 15, 2022 41   Memphis W 72-71 24%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +9.0 +2.1 +6.9
  Jan 18, 2022 81   Central Florida L 85-92 OT 35%     11 - 6 2 - 3 -2.4 +3.5 -5.0
  Jan 22, 2022 9   @ Houston L 60-79 3%    
  Jan 27, 2022 41   @ Memphis L 69-82 11%    
  Jan 30, 2022 74   Cincinnati L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 02, 2022 122   Temple W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 135   @ Tulane L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 08, 2022 121   @ Tulsa L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 63   SMU L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 17, 2022 191   @ South Florida L 63-64 46%    
  Feb 20, 2022 81   @ Central Florida L 67-76 18%    
  Feb 23, 2022 191   South Florida W 66-62 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 121   Tulsa W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 05, 2022 87   @ Wichita St. L 64-73 20%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 6 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 2.6 0.2 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 5.4 1.2 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 8.4 3.3 0.1 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 9.2 6.1 0.5 17.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 8.3 8.7 1.1 0.0 19.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 6.2 8.4 1.7 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 1.0 4.3 5.3 1.5 0.1 12.1 11th
Total 1.1 5.5 12.9 20.1 21.7 18.3 11.7 6.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 7.5% 7.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 2.1
9-9 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
8-10 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7
7-11 18.3% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3
6-12 21.7% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.7
5-13 20.1% 0.1% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 20.0
4-14 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%