Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
142 Southern Utah 22.6%   8 - 5 4 - 1 17 - 9 13 - 5 +1.2      +1.7 126 -0.5 184 72.3 82 +2.1 139 +1.5 4
147 Weber St. 23.2%   16   10 - 5 5 - 1 19 - 10 14 - 6 +1.0      +1.3 135 -0.4 181 76.5 28 +3.5 117 +4.7 1
166 Montana St. 15.9%   10 - 5 4 - 2 19 - 9 13 - 6 -0.1      -0.7 197 +0.7 147 68.9 173 +0.9 156 -0.7 5
178 Montana 16.0%   8 - 6 4 - 2 17 - 11 13 - 7 -0.6      -0.1 180 -0.5 183 64.5 303 -0.5 178 +2.0 3
209 Northern Colorado 10.1%   6 - 7 3 - 1 15 - 14 12 - 8 -2.2      +1.6 131 -3.8 296 71.1 111 +0.5 159 +3.7 2
222 Eastern Washington 7.6%   7 - 7 3 - 2 15 - 14 11 - 9 -2.9      -0.3 184 -2.6 252 76.8 26 -1.1 191 -3.3 6
274 Portland St. 2.2%   2 - 9 2 - 3 9 - 17 9 - 11 -6.4      -5.4 319 -1.0 202 71.6 95 -11.3 325 -4.7 7
279 Sacramento St. 1.5%   3 - 7 1 - 4 10 - 15 8 - 12 -6.8      -4.9 308 -1.9 230 67.1 226 -6.5 276 -10.5 9
319 Northern Arizona 0.5%   4 - 9 2 - 2 9 - 19 7 - 12 -9.8      -4.3 286 -5.5 325 65.3 280 -7.5 286 -6.4 8
325 Idaho 0.2%   1 - 13 0 - 6 5 - 23 4 - 16 -10.6      -2.4 245 -8.2 348 74.7 56 -16.1 346 -19.3 11
336 Idaho St. 0.2%   1 - 12 1 - 5 4 - 23 4 - 16 -11.6      -8.1 346 -3.5 292 62.2 328 -18.5 351 -16.5 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Southern Utah 3.2 19.2 20.1 18.9 16.9 13.3 7.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 2.1 50.0 19.9 12.3 7.8 5.8 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 3.6 12.7 18.6 20.1 18.0 15.3 9.4 4.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana 2.9 24.7 24.4 17.7 13.9 10.4 5.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 3.7 17.1 16.5 16.4 15.6 14.0 11.1 6.1 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 4.8 6.3 9.6 12.3 14.6 17.4 20.5 11.9 5.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
Portland St. 6.7 0.9 2.2 3.5 5.8 9.7 16.2 26.8 20.2 9.9 3.7 1.0
Sacramento St. 7.7 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 5.7 11.3 20.6 26.7 18.0 8.7 4.2
Northern Arizona 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.8 6.2 14.8 23.6 30.4 15.0 5.1
Idaho 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 9.1 19.4 32.7 33.9
Idaho St. 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.8 8.0 18.8 33.7 35.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Southern Utah 13 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.8 12.2 17.3 20.3 18.7 12.5 6.0 1.5
Weber St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 5.2 8.8 13.9 17.7 18.7 16.7 10.2 4.5 1.0
Montana St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.0 8.2 14.5 19.4 20.7 16.9 9.9 3.7 0.7
Montana 13 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.8 9.5 15.0 18.9 19.0 15.5 9.3 3.7 0.7
Northern Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.7 9.5 13.1 16.3 16.7 14.6 10.1 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.1
Eastern Washington 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.3 6.8 11.3 15.2 17.7 16.3 13.4 8.3 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.1
Portland St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.8 9.1 13.2 16.1 17.0 14.6 10.8 6.4 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
Sacramento St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.8 10.0 14.0 16.7 16.1 13.7 9.9 6.2 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 13 0.9 4.7 10.8 16.3 18.1 17.3 13.6 9.0 5.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 4 - 16 1.2 5.4 12.1 19.1 20.3 17.3 11.8 7.4 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 4 - 16 5.0 13.4 20.6 21.2 17.7 10.9 6.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern Utah 19.2% 9.6 6.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 50.0% 34.7 11.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 12.7% 5.4 4.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Montana 24.7% 13.4 8.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 17.1% 9.2 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 6.3% 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho
Idaho St. 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern Utah 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 8.3 9.1 2.1 77.4 0.0%
Weber St. 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.2 2.8 9.5 8.7 2.0 76.8 0.0%
Montana St. 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 4.3 7.6 2.9 84.1 0.0%
Montana 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.8 4.8 84.0 0.0%
Northern Colorado 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 2.9 89.9 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.1 92.4 0.0%
Portland St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 98.5 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Idaho 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern Utah 22.6% 0.4% 22.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 23.2% 0.3% 23.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 15.9% 0.6% 15.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 16.0% 1.5% 15.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 10.1% 0.9% 9.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.6% 1.2% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 2.2% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.0% 1.0 4.0 96.0
2nd Round 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0