Montana
Big Sky
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#178
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#178
Pace64.5#303
Improvement+3.6#42

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#180
First Shot+2.6#99
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#333
Layup/Dunks-1.3#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#140
Freethrows+3.4#9
Improvement+2.1#67

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#183
First Shot-1.3#218
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#111
Layups/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement+1.5#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 18.6% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 95.4% 98.0% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 98.7% 92.8%
Conference Champion 24.7% 31.8% 14.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.4% 1.7%
First Round15.4% 18.0% 11.3%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 49-86 12%     0 - 1 -24.6 -17.7 -8.4
  Nov 15, 2021 347   @ North Dakota L 77-79 84%     0 - 2 -13.4 -0.7 -12.8
  Nov 20, 2021 338   Nebraska Omaha W 68-47 90%     1 - 2 +6.5 -7.7 +16.2
  Nov 24, 2021 247   UC San Diego W 71-61 73%     2 - 2 +2.9 -0.2 +3.8
  Nov 26, 2021 309   Southern Miss W 74-62 84%     3 - 2 +1.0 +2.4 -0.7
  Nov 29, 2021 40   @ Oregon L 47-87 11%     3 - 3 -26.9 -19.5 -9.1
  Dec 02, 2021 279   @ Sacramento St. W 65-58 64%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +2.7 -3.3 +6.5
  Dec 04, 2021 209   @ Northern Colorado L 75-78 46%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -2.7 -0.3 -2.4
  Dec 08, 2021 244   Air Force W 66-48 73%     5 - 4 +11.0 -1.1 +13.9
  Dec 19, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara L 64-79 20%     5 - 5 -6.6 -7.5 +1.2
  Dec 30, 2021 336   Idaho St. W 78-54 89%     6 - 5 2 - 1 +9.9 +8.8 +3.6
  Jan 01, 2022 147   Weber St. W 74-72 54%     7 - 5 3 - 1 +0.5 +3.0 -2.4
  Jan 06, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington W 90-78 49%     8 - 5 4 - 1 +11.6 +3.0 +6.9
  Jan 09, 2022 166   @ Montana St. L 59-66 38%     8 - 6 4 - 2 -4.5 -2.9 -2.7
  Jan 20, 2022 274   @ Portland St. W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 27, 2022 325   Idaho W 80-67 89%    
  Jan 29, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 03, 2022 147   @ Weber St. L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 05, 2022 336   @ Idaho St. W 67-59 77%    
  Feb 07, 2022 142   Southern Utah W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 319   Northern Arizona W 73-61 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 274   Portland St. W 71-63 79%    
  Feb 17, 2022 325   @ Idaho W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 24, 2022 142   @ Southern Utah L 69-73 32%    
  Feb 27, 2022 166   Montana St. W 68-66 59%    
  Mar 03, 2022 209   Northern Colorado W 74-70 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 279   Sacramento St. W 70-61 80%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.8 8.4 7.7 3.5 0.7 24.7 1st
2nd 0.6 4.9 10.5 6.6 1.5 0.1 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.6 8.8 4.4 0.5 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 6.8 4.3 0.3 13.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 4.6 3.7 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.8 9.5 15.0 18.9 19.0 15.5 9.3 3.7 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-3 96.5% 3.5    3.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 83.5% 7.7    5.3 2.3 0.1
15-5 54.1% 8.4    3.6 3.7 1.1 0.0
14-6 20.0% 3.8    0.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 13.4 8.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.7% 34.3% 34.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
17-3 3.7% 34.9% 34.9% 14.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4
16-4 9.3% 27.6% 27.6% 14.5 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 6.7
15-5 15.5% 23.9% 23.9% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.6 11.8
14-6 19.0% 18.7% 18.7% 15.2 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.0 15.5
13-7 18.9% 13.1% 13.1% 15.5 0.1 1.0 1.4 16.4
12-8 15.0% 9.3% 9.3% 15.7 0.4 1.0 13.6
11-9 9.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.1 0.5 8.9
10-10 4.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
9-11 2.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 2.3
8-12 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.8 4.8 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.1 16.4 52.6 31.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%