Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#319
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#286
Pace65.3#280
Improvement-2.1#269

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#286
First Shot-4.5#309
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#169
Layup/Dunks-6.0#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
Freethrows+0.3#155
Improvement-3.0#331

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#325
First Shot-4.6#318
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#253
Layups/Dunks-4.6#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#96
Freethrows-1.8#292
Improvement+0.9#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 3.0% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 19.3% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 4.2% 14.1%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 26.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 2   @ Arizona L 52-81 1%     0 - 1 -7.0 -9.9 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2021 130   @ Washington L 62-73 9%     0 - 2 -6.1 -11.2 +6.1
  Nov 18, 2021 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 35%     1 - 2 +4.1 +2.1 +2.2
  Nov 20, 2021 276   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 89-87 29%     2 - 2 -2.0 +4.2 -6.4
  Nov 22, 2021 276   UT Rio Grande Valley L 80-82 47%     2 - 3 -11.0 +4.1 -15.2
  Nov 24, 2021 170   Cal St. Fullerton L 56-73 25%     2 - 4 -19.8 -12.8 -9.0
  Dec 02, 2021 147   @ Weber St. L 44-67 11%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -19.5 -30.2 +11.9
  Dec 04, 2021 336   @ Idaho St. W 73-70 47%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -6.1 +5.0 -10.8
  Dec 11, 2021 234   @ South Dakota L 71-76 OT 22%     3 - 6 -6.5 -7.9 +1.7
  Dec 18, 2021 172   San Diego L 59-69 19%     3 - 7 -10.4 -9.4 -1.3
  Dec 20, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 49-95 0.4%    3 - 8 -20.9 -15.6 -4.5
  Jan 01, 2022 222   Eastern Washington L 65-78 33%     3 - 9 1 - 2 -18.4 -6.5 -12.9
  Jan 17, 2022 325   Idaho W 74-72 63%     4 - 9 2 - 2 -11.2 -10.1 -1.1
  Jan 20, 2022 166   Montana St. L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 178   Montana L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 24, 2022 279   Sacramento St. L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 274   Portland St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 03, 2022 279   @ Sacramento St. L 64-69 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 209   Northern Colorado L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 07, 2022 209   @ Northern Colorado L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 10, 2022 178   @ Montana L 61-73 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 166   @ Montana St. L 62-74 12%    
  Feb 17, 2022 274   @ Portland St. L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 21, 2022 142   Southern Utah L 67-76 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 65-61 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 147   Weber St. L 69-77 23%    
  Mar 03, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 69-78 18%    
  Mar 05, 2022 325   @ Idaho L 73-75 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 14.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 5.3 9.3 6.1 1.4 0.1 23.6 8th
9th 0.4 3.5 9.6 10.7 5.2 1.1 0.1 30.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.3 5.6 5.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.1 11th
Total 0.9 4.7 10.8 16.3 18.1 17.3 13.6 9.0 5.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 78.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 5.9% 0.0    0.0
13-7 9.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.4
10-10 5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.1
9-11 9.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.9
8-12 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
7-13 17.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.2
6-14 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.1
5-15 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
4-16 10.8% 10.8
3-17 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%