Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#274
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#325
Pace71.6#95
Improvement+2.0#85

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#319
First Shot-5.2#317
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#194
Layup/Dunks+0.8#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#332
Freethrows+0.9#108
Improvement+4.5#9

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-1.7#236
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks-1.9#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
Freethrows+0.0#198
Improvement-2.5#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.2% 7.9% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.2% 54.3% 25.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.8% 3.9%
First Four1.9% 2.4% 1.5%
First Round1.3% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 48 - 810 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 124   @ Oregon St. L 64-73 14%     0 - 1 -3.6 -11.5 +8.4
  Nov 23, 2021 245   Portland L 54-69 53%     0 - 2 -22.1 -24.4 +2.9
  Nov 26, 2021 21   @ Iowa L 51-85 3%     0 - 3 -18.3 -21.9 +6.1
  Dec 02, 2021 336   @ Idaho St. W 63-55 60%     1 - 3 1 - 0 -1.1 -11.6 +10.6
  Dec 04, 2021 147   @ Weber St. L 69-80 18%     1 - 4 1 - 1 -7.5 -5.8 -1.3
  Dec 11, 2021 300   Cal Poly L 58-61 66%     1 - 5 -13.6 -18.4 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2021 296   @ Cal St. Northridge L 66-69 46%     1 - 6 -8.4 -7.3 -1.1
  Dec 21, 2021 73   @ Utah St. L 62-81 7%     1 - 7 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0
  Dec 30, 2021 222   Eastern Washington L 58-63 46%     1 - 8 1 - 2 -10.4 -18.7 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2022 279   @ Sacramento St. W 67-62 42%     2 - 8 2 - 2 +0.7 -0.3 +1.4
  Jan 17, 2022 142   @ Southern Utah L 76-86 17%     2 - 9 2 - 3 -6.2 +8.5 -15.4
  Jan 20, 2022 178   Montana L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 166   Montana St. L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 24, 2022 325   Idaho W 79-72 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 142   Southern Utah L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 31, 2022 209   Northern Colorado L 72-74 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 209   @ Northern Colorado L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 05, 2022 279   Sacramento St. W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 10, 2022 166   @ Montana St. L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 178   @ Montana L 63-71 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 319   Northern Arizona W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 24, 2022 147   Weber St. L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 67-59 77%    
  Mar 03, 2022 325   @ Idaho W 76-74 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 71-77 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.2 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.9 1.5 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.7 7.1 3.1 0.2 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 8.7 9.6 4.3 0.5 0.0 26.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.9 7.4 5.9 2.2 0.3 20.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.8 9.1 13.2 16.1 17.0 14.6 10.8 6.4 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 65.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 27.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 32.4% 32.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 14.8% 14.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.5% 13.1% 13.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.3
13-7 3.4% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.1
12-8 6.4% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.3 6.1
11-9 10.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.5 10.3
10-10 14.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 14.2
9-11 17.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.8
8-12 16.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.0
7-13 13.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.1
6-14 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
5-15 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%