Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#156
Pace68.9#173
Improvement+1.7#93

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#197
First Shot+1.3#138
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#318
Layup/Dunks-1.5#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows+2.1#40
Improvement-2.1#298

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#147
First Shot+1.8#117
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#275
Layups/Dunks+1.9#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#20
Freethrows-2.0#299
Improvement+3.8#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 17.0% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 99.0% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 96.8% 85.8%
Conference Champion 12.7% 15.4% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round15.6% 16.8% 12.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 417 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 69   @ Colorado L 90-94 OT 16%     0 - 1 +6.3 +14.2 -7.5
  Nov 17, 2021 98   @ South Dakota St. L 74-91 21%     0 - 2 -8.7 -2.9 -5.3
  Nov 20, 2021 193   @ New Mexico L 78-81 45%     0 - 3 -1.9 +0.9 -2.6
  Nov 26, 2021 245   Portland W 69-66 67%     1 - 3 -1.6 +4.8 -5.9
  Nov 27, 2021 353   @ Incarnate Word W 83-64 88%     2 - 3 +5.9 +6.9 -0.1
  Nov 28, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-68 81%     3 - 3 -2.3 -12.8 +9.9
  Dec 02, 2021 209   @ Northern Colorado L 75-77 OT 49%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -1.7 -9.6 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2021 279   @ Sacramento St. W 68-66 66%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -2.3 +0.9 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2021 188   North Dakota St. W 68-49 64%     5 - 4 +15.4 -3.4 +19.8
  Dec 11, 2021 288   @ St. Thomas W 72-65 68%     6 - 4 +2.0 -11.8 +13.6
  Dec 19, 2021 245   Portland W 61-59 75%     7 - 4 -5.1 -14.6 +9.5
  Dec 30, 2021 147   Weber St. L 75-85 56%     7 - 5 1 - 2 -11.5 -2.5 -8.6
  Jan 01, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 60-40 90%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +5.9 -13.0 +20.4
  Jan 06, 2022 325   @ Idaho W 92-72 78%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +11.9 +7.6 +3.2
  Jan 09, 2022 178   Montana W 66-59 62%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +3.9 +1.4 +3.5
  Jan 20, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 274   @ Portland St. W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 27, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 77-72 70%    
  Jan 29, 2022 325   Idaho W 82-69 90%    
  Feb 03, 2022 336   @ Idaho St. W 68-59 78%    
  Feb 05, 2022 147   @ Weber St. L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 10, 2022 274   Portland St. W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 319   Northern Arizona W 74-62 88%    
  Feb 17, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington W 75-74 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 142   @ Southern Utah L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 27, 2022 178   @ Montana L 66-68 41%    
  Mar 03, 2022 279   Sacramento St. W 72-63 81%    
  Mar 05, 2022 209   Northern Colorado W 76-71 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.3 3.2 0.7 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.6 8.7 4.1 0.5 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.6 9.8 4.7 0.5 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 8.7 5.0 0.5 18.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.1 4.9 0.6 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.0 8.2 14.5 19.4 20.7 16.9 9.9 3.7 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 97.8% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-4 85.0% 3.2    2.1 1.0 0.1
15-5 53.4% 5.3    2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0
14-6 17.4% 2.9    0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 5.4 4.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.7% 35.1% 35.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-4 3.7% 32.5% 32.5% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5
15-5 9.9% 27.9% 27.9% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.0 7.2
14-6 16.9% 22.7% 22.7% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.3 13.1
13-7 20.7% 15.4% 15.4% 14.9 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.5 17.5
12-8 19.4% 12.9% 12.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.8 16.9
11-9 14.5% 9.4% 9.4% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.7 13.1
10-10 8.2% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 7.7
9-11 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.8
8-12 1.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 1.0 4.3 7.6 2.9 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.0 17.8 62.8 18.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%