Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#147
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#117
Pace76.5#28
Improvement-2.8#293

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#135
First Shot+2.3#108
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#260
Layup/Dunks-0.4#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
Freethrows+2.5#24
Improvement-0.7#224

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#181
First Shot-2.4#258
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#35
Layups/Dunks-4.9#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#310
Freethrows+3.1#13
Improvement-2.1#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 23.6% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 99.1% 99.3% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.2% 95.6%
Conference Champion 50.0% 51.5% 29.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round23.1% 23.5% 17.6%
Second Round1.8% 1.8% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 415 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 190   @ Duquesne W 63-59 49%     1 - 0 +5.2 -10.7 +15.8
  Nov 18, 2021 154   Massachusetts W 88-73 52%     2 - 0 +15.5 +14.5 +1.8
  Nov 19, 2021 242   Ball St. W 85-74 70%     3 - 0 +6.5 +1.8 +3.9
  Nov 21, 2021 321   Green Bay W 68-58 85%     4 - 0 -0.2 -6.5 +7.0
  Nov 27, 2021 297   @ Dixie St. W 87-70 73%     5 - 0 +11.6 +5.8 +4.7
  Dec 02, 2021 319   Northern Arizona W 67-44 89%     6 - 0 1 - 0 +10.7 -16.1 +25.6
  Dec 04, 2021 274   Portland St. W 80-69 82%     7 - 0 2 - 0 +2.1 +1.6 +0.0
  Dec 08, 2021 52   @ Washington St. L 60-94 16%     7 - 1 -22.3 -7.4 -13.7
  Dec 15, 2021 73   Utah St. L 80-95 35%     7 - 2 -10.0 +4.9 -14.1
  Dec 18, 2021 29   BYU L 71-89 20%     7 - 3 -8.3 -1.3 -5.7
  Dec 23, 2021 78   Fresno St. L 43-69 36%     7 - 4 -21.3 -19.2 -6.0
  Dec 30, 2021 166   @ Montana St. W 85-75 44%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +12.5 +10.6 +1.4
  Jan 01, 2022 178   @ Montana L 72-74 46%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -0.1 +3.2 -3.5
  Jan 13, 2022 325   Idaho W 84-74 90%     9 - 5 4 - 1 -3.2 -6.6 +2.4
  Jan 17, 2022 336   @ Idaho St. W 78-61 83%     10 - 5 5 - 1 +7.9 -3.6 +10.0
  Jan 20, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 76-61 93%    
  Jan 24, 2022 142   @ Southern Utah L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 27, 2022 209   @ Northern Colorado W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 279   @ Sacramento St. W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 31, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 83-77 74%    
  Feb 03, 2022 178   Montana W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 166   Montana St. W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 10, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 325   @ Idaho W 85-76 79%    
  Feb 17, 2022 279   Sacramento St. W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 209   Northern Colorado W 82-76 71%    
  Feb 24, 2022 274   @ Portland St. W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 26, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona W 77-69 77%    
  Mar 05, 2022 142   Southern Utah W 79-77 60%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.1 12.8 15.6 10.2 4.5 1.0 50.0 1st
2nd 0.4 3.9 9.0 5.6 1.0 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.1 3.4 0.3 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.7 0.3 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.4 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.2 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 5.2 8.8 13.9 17.7 18.7 16.7 10.2 4.5 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 100.0% 4.5    4.4 0.0
17-3 99.3% 10.2    9.7 0.5 0.0
16-4 94.0% 15.6    12.2 3.3 0.2
15-5 68.4% 12.8    6.2 5.4 1.2 0.0
14-6 28.9% 5.1    1.1 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-7 5.6% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.0% 50.0 34.7 11.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.0% 33.5% 33.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7
18-2 4.5% 39.6% 39.6% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.7
17-3 10.2% 35.4% 35.4% 13.9 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.5 6.6
16-4 16.7% 30.0% 30.0% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.5 0.0 11.7
15-5 18.7% 25.7% 25.7% 14.5 0.2 2.1 2.3 0.2 13.9
14-6 17.7% 20.6% 20.6% 14.8 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.4 14.1
13-7 13.9% 17.6% 17.6% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 11.4
12-8 8.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 7.8
11-9 5.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.8
10-10 2.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.2
9-11 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.8 9.5 8.7 2.0 76.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.6 1.2 7.1 30.8 53.8 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%