Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#336
Expected Predictive Rating-18.5#351
Pace62.2#328
Improvement+1.0#126

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#346
First Shot-9.1#353
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#100
Layup/Dunks-5.5#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#312
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#215
Freethrows-0.5#221
Improvement-1.7#278

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#292
First Shot-3.2#283
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#193
Layups/Dunks-3.3#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#97
Freethrows-0.9#257
Improvement+2.7#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 3.2% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 51.4% 27.2% 53.1%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 6.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 30 - 101 - 13
Quad 44 - 114 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 253   @ Pepperdine L 60-65 19%     0 - 1 -7.4 -13.7 +6.4
  Nov 14, 2021 160   @ Seattle L 51-77 10%     0 - 2 -23.3 -17.1 -7.5
  Nov 19, 2021 140   @ Nebraska L 60-78 8%     0 - 3 -14.0 -5.0 -10.9
  Nov 22, 2021 265   UMKC L 58-74 36%     0 - 4 -24.0 -6.4 -20.1
  Nov 27, 2021 244   @ Air Force L 48-59 18%     0 - 5 -13.0 -16.3 +1.7
  Dec 02, 2021 274   Portland St. L 55-63 40%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -16.9 -19.7 +2.7
  Dec 04, 2021 319   Northern Arizona L 70-73 53%     0 - 7 0 - 2 -15.3 -2.8 -12.8
  Dec 08, 2021 107   @ California L 46-72 5%     0 - 8 -19.1 -14.0 -9.2
  Dec 22, 2021 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 43-56 11%     0 - 9 -11.1 -21.2 +7.5
  Dec 30, 2021 178   @ Montana L 54-78 11%     0 - 10 0 - 3 -22.1 -12.2 -12.5
  Jan 01, 2022 166   @ Montana St. L 40-60 10%     0 - 11 0 - 4 -17.5 -27.8 +8.7
  Jan 15, 2022 325   Idaho W 81-74 56%     1 - 11 1 - 4 -6.2 -3.6 -2.8
  Jan 17, 2022 147   Weber St. L 61-78 17%     1 - 12 1 - 5 -18.5 -18.5 +1.4
  Jan 20, 2022 147   @ Weber St. L 61-76 7%    
  Jan 22, 2022 142   @ Southern Utah L 59-74 7%    
  Jan 24, 2022 222   Eastern Washington L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 27, 2022 279   @ Sacramento St. L 59-66 23%    
  Jan 29, 2022 209   @ Northern Colorado L 62-74 12%    
  Feb 03, 2022 166   Montana St. L 59-68 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 178   Montana L 59-67 23%    
  Feb 10, 2022 325   @ Idaho L 68-71 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 63-74 14%    
  Feb 17, 2022 209   Northern Colorado L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 19, 2022 279   Sacramento St. L 61-63 43%    
  Feb 24, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona L 61-65 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 274   @ Portland St. L 59-67 23%    
  Mar 03, 2022 142   Southern Utah L 62-72 19%    
Projected Record 4 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.6 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.4 3.1 7.0 5.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 18.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 8.3 12.5 8.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 33.7 10th
11th 4.8 11.6 11.9 5.6 1.3 0.1 35.4 11th
Total 5.0 13.4 20.6 21.2 17.7 10.9 6.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-11 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 2.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 6.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.9
5-15 17.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.6
4-16 21.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.2
3-17 20.6% 20.6
2-18 13.4% 13.4
1-19 5.0% 5.0
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.3%