Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#209
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#159
Pace71.1#111
Improvement-1.9#261

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#131
First Shot+4.2#57
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#329
Layup/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#14
Freethrows-0.7#235
Improvement-0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#296
First Shot-4.3#308
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#143
Layups/Dunks-1.0#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
Freethrows+1.7#74
Improvement-1.8#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 11.0% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.2
.500 or above 69.8% 77.6% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 93.7% 79.0%
Conference Champion 17.1% 21.0% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round9.6% 10.6% 7.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 260   Pacific W 67-65 61%     1 - 0 -3.2 -6.1 +2.9
  Nov 11, 2021 161   @ Hawaii W 81-78 32%     2 - 0 +5.7 +4.7 +0.9
  Nov 17, 2021 17   @ Texas L 49-62 5%     2 - 1 +3.8 -9.3 +11.3
  Nov 21, 2021 236   @ California Baptist L 70-74 47%     2 - 2 -5.5 -3.6 -2.0
  Nov 23, 2021 287   @ San Jose St. L 74-75 60%     2 - 3 -5.7 +3.6 -9.4
  Nov 27, 2021 47   @ Colorado St. L 79-88 9%     2 - 4 +3.5 +15.3 -12.4
  Dec 02, 2021 166   Montana St. W 77-75 OT 51%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -0.6 -5.8 +5.0
  Dec 04, 2021 178   Montana W 78-75 54%     4 - 4 2 - 0 -0.1 +3.5 -3.6
  Dec 07, 2021 234   South Dakota W 74-69 66%     5 - 4 -1.5 -2.3 +0.9
  Dec 15, 2021 2   @ Arizona L 76-101 2%     5 - 5 -3.0 +6.0 -6.3
  Dec 18, 2021 52   @ Washington St. L 56-82 10%     5 - 6 -14.3 -10.1 -3.9
  Jan 01, 2022 142   @ Southern Utah W 91-81 28%     6 - 6 3 - 0 +13.8 +11.5 +1.4
  Jan 08, 2022 279   Sacramento St. L 71-85 75%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -23.3 -6.4 -16.6
  Jan 20, 2022 325   @ Idaho W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 78-80 41%    
  Jan 27, 2022 147   Weber St. L 78-79 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 74-62 88%    
  Jan 31, 2022 274   @ Portland St. W 74-72 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 274   Portland St. W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 07, 2022 319   Northern Arizona W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 10, 2022 279   @ Sacramento St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 14, 2022 142   Southern Utah L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 17, 2022 336   @ Idaho St. W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 147   @ Weber St. L 76-82 29%    
  Feb 24, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 81-78 62%    
  Feb 26, 2022 325   Idaho W 85-74 85%    
  Mar 03, 2022 178   @ Montana L 70-74 33%    
  Mar 05, 2022 166   @ Montana St. L 71-76 32%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.8 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 17.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 7.3 3.9 0.8 0.1 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.8 7.7 4.0 0.5 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.5 4.1 0.5 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.4 4.0 0.5 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.7 9.5 13.1 16.3 16.7 14.6 10.1 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-3 97.8% 2.2    2.1 0.2 0.0
16-4 86.1% 4.9    3.5 1.4 0.1
15-5 57.1% 5.8    2.4 2.6 0.8 0.0
14-6 19.3% 2.8    0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 9.2 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 32.7% 32.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 29.9% 29.9% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 2.3% 27.9% 27.9% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.6
16-4 5.7% 23.3% 23.3% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 4.4
15-5 10.1% 18.5% 18.5% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.2 8.3
14-6 14.6% 13.9% 13.9% 15.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 12.6
13-7 16.7% 10.5% 10.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 14.9
12-8 16.3% 6.9% 6.9% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 15.2
11-9 13.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.1 0.6 12.4
10-10 9.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.3
9-11 5.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.6
8-12 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 2.9 89.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%