Southern Utah
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#142
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#139
Pace72.3#82
Improvement+0.7#149

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#126
First Shot+1.5#134
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#166
Layup/Dunks+1.7#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#127
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+2.3#57

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#184
First Shot-0.5#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#171
Layups/Dunks+0.0#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#244
Freethrows+2.2#45
Improvement-1.7#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 23.0% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 98.0% 98.5% 91.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 96.1% 83.1%
Conference Champion 19.2% 20.2% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 1.1%
First Round22.5% 22.9% 17.0%
Second Round1.8% 1.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 412 - 418 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 297   @ Dixie St. L 76-83 74%     0 - 1 -12.4 -5.6 -6.3
  Nov 15, 2021 38   @ St. Mary's L 51-70 13%     0 - 2 -5.8 -11.5 +5.7
  Nov 18, 2021 107   @ California L 68-75 2OT 29%     0 - 3 -0.1 -7.5 +8.3
  Nov 23, 2021 134   Yale W 88-85 OT 47%     1 - 3 +5.1 +4.5 +0.2
  Nov 24, 2021 182   Bowling Green W 87-73 58%     2 - 3 +13.2 +6.5 +6.1
  Dec 02, 2021 222   @ Eastern Washington W 89-76 56%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +12.6 +5.1 +6.1
  Dec 04, 2021 325   @ Idaho W 81-75 81%     4 - 3 2 - 0 -2.1 +2.0 -4.0
  Dec 08, 2021 128   Utah Valley W 60-56 55%     5 - 3 +4.0 -10.0 +14.1
  Dec 18, 2021 24   @ Michigan L 50-87 10%     5 - 4 -21.7 -15.6 -6.8
  Dec 22, 2021 297   Dixie St. W 87-59 86%     6 - 4 +17.6 +1.1 +14.1
  Dec 30, 2021 279   Sacramento St. W 64-51 84%     7 - 4 3 - 0 +3.7 -6.3 +11.2
  Jan 01, 2022 209   Northern Colorado L 81-91 72%     7 - 5 3 - 1 -14.7 -3.5 -10.4
  Jan 17, 2022 274   Portland St. W 86-76 83%     8 - 5 4 - 1 +1.1 +16.1 -14.4
  Jan 22, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 74-59 93%    
  Jan 24, 2022 147   Weber St. W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 27, 2022 274   @ Portland St. W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 03, 2022 325   Idaho W 86-72 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 82-75 75%    
  Feb 07, 2022 178   @ Montana L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 279   @ Sacramento St. W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 14, 2022 209   @ Northern Colorado W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 166   Montana St. W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 21, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 24, 2022 178   Montana W 73-69 68%    
  Mar 03, 2022 336   @ Idaho St. W 72-62 81%    
  Mar 05, 2022 147   @ Weber St. L 77-79 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.6 5.5 1.5 19.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.0 9.5 4.6 0.5 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.3 9.1 4.7 0.4 0.0 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 7.9 5.0 0.5 0.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.0 4.1 0.5 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.1 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.8 12.2 17.3 20.3 18.7 12.5 6.0 1.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-4 91.4% 5.5    4.2 1.3 0.0
15-5 60.6% 7.6    3.4 3.3 0.9 0.1
14-6 21.6% 4.1    0.6 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 9.6 6.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.5% 48.2% 48.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8
16-4 6.0% 43.8% 43.8% 13.5 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.1 3.4
15-5 12.5% 35.0% 35.0% 14.0 0.9 2.5 0.9 0.0 8.1
14-6 18.7% 26.9% 26.9% 14.4 0.3 2.4 2.3 0.1 13.7
13-7 20.3% 22.2% 22.2% 14.7 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.4 15.8
12-8 17.3% 17.1% 17.1% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.5 14.4
11-9 12.2% 12.9% 12.9% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 10.6
10-10 6.8% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.2
9-11 3.2% 7.2% 7.2% 15.6 0.1 0.1 3.0
8-12 1.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 8.3 9.1 2.1 77.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.7 0.8 4.2 32.5 51.4 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%