Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#279
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#276
Pace67.1#226
Improvement+1.6#99

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#308
First Shot-4.0#296
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#253
Layup/Dunks-2.6#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#313
Freethrows+0.8#119
Improvement+1.3#91

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#230
First Shot-1.2#213
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#241
Layups/Dunks-5.4#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#10
Freethrows-2.8#324
Improvement+0.3#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.2% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 13.0% 25.5% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.3% 37.7% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 3.3% 10.0%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round1.0% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 25.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 48 - 810 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 111   @ Utah L 56-89 11%     0 - 1 -26.3 -17.4 -7.4
  Nov 15, 2021 300   @ Cal Poly W 58-57 45%     1 - 1 -4.6 -7.5 +3.0
  Nov 20, 2021 247   UC San Diego L 56-71 51%     1 - 2 -22.1 -20.0 -2.1
  Nov 23, 2021 208   UC Davis W 75-63 33%     2 - 2 +9.8 -6.9 +15.6
  Nov 27, 2021 2   @ Arizona L 59-105 1%     2 - 3 -24.0 -10.6 -7.3
  Dec 02, 2021 178   Montana L 58-65 36%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -10.1 -11.9 +1.2
  Dec 04, 2021 166   Montana St. L 66-68 34%     2 - 5 0 - 2 -4.6 -1.2 -3.5
  Dec 30, 2021 142   @ Southern Utah L 51-64 16%     2 - 6 0 - 3 -9.2 -16.5 +6.1
  Jan 08, 2022 209   @ Northern Colorado W 85-71 25%     3 - 6 1 - 3 +14.3 +7.9 +6.0
  Jan 15, 2022 274   Portland St. L 62-67 58%     3 - 7 1 - 4 -13.9 -7.3 -7.1
  Jan 20, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 70-76 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 325   @ Idaho W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 24, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 27, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 66-59 77%    
  Jan 29, 2022 147   Weber St. L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 03, 2022 319   Northern Arizona W 69-64 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 274   @ Portland St. L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 10, 2022 209   Northern Colorado L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 142   Southern Utah L 67-73 33%    
  Feb 17, 2022 147   @ Weber St. L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 336   @ Idaho St. W 63-61 57%    
  Feb 24, 2022 325   Idaho W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 222   Eastern Washington L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 03, 2022 166   @ Montana St. L 63-72 19%    
  Mar 05, 2022 178   @ Montana L 61-70 20%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 4.6 1.9 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.9 7.2 2.9 0.3 20.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.4 9.7 7.7 2.5 0.3 26.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 5.3 6.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.8 10.0 14.0 16.7 16.1 13.7 9.9 6.2 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 81.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 28.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 4.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 18.8% 18.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 22.8% 22.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.0% 12.6% 12.6% 15.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-8 2.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.6
11-9 6.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.9
10-10 9.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 9.6
9-11 13.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.5
8-12 16.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.0
7-13 16.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.6
6-14 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 10.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-16 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
3-17 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%