Idaho
Big Sky
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.6#325
Expected Predictive Rating-16.1#346
Pace74.7#56
Improvement-1.1#224

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#245
First Shot-1.7#238
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#237
Layup/Dunks-3.7#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#141
Freethrows+3.1#14
Improvement+0.6#137

Defense
Total Defense-8.2#348
First Shot-7.1#344
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#273
Layups/Dunks-5.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#121
Freethrows-1.4#280
Improvement-1.8#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 1.7% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.2% 33.6% 56.0%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 30.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 102 - 12
Quad 44 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 239   Long Beach St. L 89-95 OT 35%     0 - 1 -12.7 -3.5 -8.1
  Nov 15, 2021 78   @ Fresno St. L 62-69 4%     0 - 2 +2.7 -0.1 +2.3
  Nov 18, 2021 52   Washington St. L 61-109 6%     0 - 3 -41.3 -8.8 -31.0
  Nov 22, 2021 128   Utah Valley L 45-83 11%     0 - 4 -35.5 -29.9 -2.8
  Nov 24, 2021 300   Cal Poly L 63-67 40%     0 - 5 -12.1 -11.5 -0.7
  Nov 27, 2021 188   @ North Dakota St. L 73-90 13%     0 - 6 -15.6 -5.2 -9.1
  Dec 04, 2021 142   Southern Utah L 75-81 19%     0 - 7 0 - 1 -7.3 +1.1 -8.4
  Dec 08, 2021 98   South Dakota St. W 98-84 10%     1 - 7 +17.3 +15.8 +0.8
  Dec 11, 2021 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-59 18%     1 - 8 -1.9 -1.9 -0.2
  Jan 06, 2022 166   Montana St. L 72-92 22%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -22.6 -5.0 -16.6
  Jan 08, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 93-96 17%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -3.4 +14.0 -17.2
  Jan 13, 2022 147   @ Weber St. L 74-84 10%     1 - 11 0 - 4 -6.5 -5.2 -0.3
  Jan 15, 2022 336   @ Idaho St. L 74-81 44%     1 - 12 0 - 5 -16.1 -3.2 -12.7
  Jan 17, 2022 319   @ Northern Arizona L 72-74 37%     1 - 13 0 - 6 -9.3 -6.8 -2.4
  Jan 20, 2022 209   Northern Colorado L 77-83 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 279   Sacramento St. L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 24, 2022 274   @ Portland St. L 72-79 25%    
  Jan 27, 2022 178   @ Montana L 67-80 11%    
  Jan 29, 2022 166   @ Montana St. L 69-82 10%    
  Feb 03, 2022 142   @ Southern Utah L 72-86 8%    
  Feb 10, 2022 336   Idaho St. W 71-68 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 147   Weber St. L 76-85 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 178   Montana L 69-77 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 222   Eastern Washington L 79-84 33%    
  Feb 24, 2022 279   @ Sacramento St. L 70-76 27%    
  Feb 26, 2022 209   @ Northern Colorado L 74-85 15%    
  Mar 03, 2022 274   Portland St. L 74-76 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 319   Northern Arizona W 75-73 58%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.1 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.4 3.0 7.2 6.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 19.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 8.1 12.1 8.0 2.2 0.3 32.7 10th
11th 1.2 5.3 10.3 10.7 5.2 1.2 0.1 33.9 11th
Total 1.2 5.4 12.1 19.1 20.3 17.3 11.8 7.4 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
8-12 3.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-13 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
6-14 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-15 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.3
4-16 20.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.3
3-17 19.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.1
2-18 12.1% 12.1
1-19 5.4% 5.4
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%