Big South
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
183 Winthrop 24.3%   7 - 6 3 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 4 -0.9      +2.0 115 -2.9 262 74.0 63 +1.6 148 +7.2 2
187 Longwood 24.9%   16   7 - 5 3 - 0 16 - 9 12 - 4 -1.0      -0.9 201 -0.1 170 67.1 228 -2.7 214 +9.9 1
223 Gardner-Webb 13.7%   6 - 9 3 - 2 12 - 14 9 - 7 -2.9      -3.3 267 +0.5 156 68.8 177 -6.6 277 -7.4 5
225 Campbell 12.5%   6 - 7 2 - 3 13 - 11 9 - 7 -3.0      -0.2 182 -2.8 258 56.8 356 -4.7 250 -9.3 7
249 UNC Asheville 7.2%   7 - 8 2 - 3 13 - 13 8 - 8 -4.7      -1.2 209 -3.5 285 66.7 243 -4.9 255 -10.5 8
272 N.C. A&T 5.9%   6 - 10 4 - 1 11 - 16 9 - 7 -6.1      -3.7 273 -2.4 245 72.0 90 -4.5 247 +1.5 4
275 High Point 3.9%   4 - 10 1 - 2 10 - 17 7 - 9 -6.5      -4.3 289 -2.1 236 64.7 300 -8.8 300 -12.7 10
285 Radford 3.1%   4 - 11 2 - 3 9 - 17 7 - 9 -7.2      -4.7 303 -2.4 246 65.7 272 -8.1 294 -9.0 6
299 Presbyterian 1.7%   5 - 10 0 - 3 10 - 17 5 - 10 -8.0      -5.4 318 -2.6 255 60.4 344 -5.0 259 -22.2 12
311 South Carolina Upstate 2.5%   5 - 10 4 - 1 10 - 16 9 - 7 -8.6      -2.0 227 -6.6 339 70.2 136 -6.7 278 +2.9 3
332 Hampton 0.3%   2 - 10 0 - 3 6 - 18 4 - 11 -11.3      -8.8 350 -2.5 250 66.9 234 -12.2 329 -17.8 11
351 Charleston Southern 0.0%   2 - 13 1 - 4 4 - 22 3 - 13 -15.0      -8.0 345 -7.0 341 75.9 36 -14.4 339 -11.9 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Winthrop 2.1 46.9 28.3 11.1 6.3 3.3 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Longwood 2.0 52.5 25.8 9.6 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 4.2 7.6 15.6 20.3 16.9 13.3 10.4 7.5 4.8 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Campbell 4.9 3.9 11.2 17.6 15.9 13.6 11.8 9.9 7.6 5.2 2.2 1.0 0.1
UNC Asheville 5.8 1.9 6.0 10.2 13.2 14.4 14.7 13.5 11.3 8.3 4.6 1.6 0.4
N.C. A&T 4.3 7.3 13.9 18.3 17.0 15.2 11.7 8.3 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
High Point 7.1 1.3 3.5 5.8 7.8 9.1 10.8 12.7 14.6 15.4 10.8 6.3 1.9
Radford 7.2 0.4 1.6 4.3 7.1 9.8 12.6 14.9 17.3 16.6 10.2 4.3 0.9
Presbyterian 9.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.7 8.0 11.6 18.2 24.5 16.3 8.5
South Carolina Upstate 5.1 3.9 9.1 14.1 15.1 16.2 14.7 11.9 8.8 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.0
Hampton 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.7 10.5 18.7 30.0 28.0
Charleston Southern 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 7.8 17.2 32.5 36.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Winthrop 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 6.2 11.3 17.0 20.7 18.8 13.6 6.3 1.6
Longwood 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.8 10.0 15.7 19.8 19.2 15.2 8.0 2.2
Gardner-Webb 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.7 15.4 20.6 21.4 15.7 9.3 3.3 0.6
Campbell 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 7.2 12.5 17.4 20.0 18.5 13.0 5.9 1.4
UNC Asheville 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 2.2 5.7 11.4 17.5 21.0 18.9 13.4 6.7 2.3 0.4
N.C. A&T 9 - 7 0.1 0.8 4.0 9.8 17.3 22.1 20.0 14.8 7.8 2.7 0.5 0.1
High Point 7 - 9 0.2 1.1 3.3 7.6 12.8 16.8 18.3 15.7 11.7 7.6 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
Radford 7 - 9 0.3 1.8 5.8 12.7 19.6 22.0 18.6 12.0 5.3 1.7 0.3 0.0
Presbyterian 5 - 11 0.2 1.6 5.3 11.3 17.3 20.0 18.1 13.5 7.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 9 - 7 0.4 2.2 7.3 14.8 21.2 21.4 16.4 10.3 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
Hampton 4 - 12 2.0 8.1 15.2 20.4 19.6 15.9 10.1 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charleston Southern 3 - 13 8.0 20.9 27.4 21.5 13.1 6.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Winthrop 46.9% 32.3 11.5 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Longwood 52.5% 37.0 12.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Gardner-Webb 7.6% 3.1 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.1
Campbell 3.9% 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
UNC Asheville 1.9% 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
N.C. A&T 7.3% 3.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
High Point 1.3% 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Radford 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Presbyterian 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 3.9% 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Charleston Southern


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Winthrop 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 4.1 10.3 8.8 75.7 0.0%
Longwood 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.4 2.2 8.1 14.2 75.1 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 12.0 86.3 0.0%
Campbell 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.8 9.2 87.5 0.0%
UNC Asheville 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.0 92.8 0.0%
N.C. A&T 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 5.7 94.1 0.0%
High Point 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.7 96.1 0.0%
Radford 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.6 98.3 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Hampton 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Charleston Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Winthrop 24.3% 2.8% 22.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 24.9% 7.1% 21.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 13.7% 8.4% 9.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 12.5% 5.2% 10.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 7.2% 3.7% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 5.9% 4.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 3.9% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 3.1% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 2.5% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 80.1% 0.8 19.9 80.1
2nd Round 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0