Radford
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#285
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#294
Pace65.7#272
Improvement-0.7#201

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#303
First Shot-5.9#326
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#90
Layup/Dunks-3.8#311
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#177
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement+2.5#47

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#246
First Shot-4.6#315
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#32
Layups/Dunks-1.0#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#164
Freethrows-4.6#351
Improvement-3.2#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.0% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.9% 3.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 37.9% 51.9% 22.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.2% 5.6%
First Four2.9% 3.7% 2.1%
First Round1.7% 2.2% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 67   @ Virginia L 52-73 6%     0 - 1 -10.5 -6.4 -7.3
  Nov 15, 2021 32   @ Virginia Tech L 39-65 4%     0 - 2 -11.9 -25.8 +13.3
  Nov 19, 2021 102   @ Furman L 64-81 9%     0 - 3 -9.6 -6.4 -3.4
  Nov 20, 2021 148   Navy L 33-47 22%     0 - 4 -13.1 -35.3 +21.2
  Nov 24, 2021 340   William & Mary W 67-54 76%     1 - 4 -1.7 -6.1 +5.5
  Nov 28, 2021 216   Eastern Kentucky W 88-75 42%     2 - 4 +8.0 +7.2 +0.0
  Dec 04, 2021 43   @ West Virginia L 51-67 4%     2 - 5 -3.1 -13.0 +9.6
  Dec 11, 2021 180   @ James Madison L 70-79 20%     2 - 6 -7.2 -7.7 +1.1
  Dec 13, 2021 271   @ George Washington L 58-67 36%     2 - 7 -12.6 -14.1 +1.3
  Dec 18, 2021 53   @ Davidson L 54-74 5%     2 - 8 -8.3 -10.6 -0.1
  Jan 06, 2022 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 82-77 46%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -1.1 +3.4 -4.6
  Jan 08, 2022 272   N.C. A&T L 72-73 56%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -9.6 +4.0 -13.7
  Jan 12, 2022 187   Longwood L 75-83 OT 36%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -11.5 -5.0 -5.9
  Jan 15, 2022 225   @ Campbell L 58-70 26%     3 - 11 1 - 3 -12.5 -2.2 -13.3
  Jan 19, 2022 332   Hampton W 54-51 74%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -10.8 -18.6 +8.0
  Jan 22, 2022 249   UNC Asheville W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 26, 2022 275   @ High Point L 63-66 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 223   @ Gardner-Webb L 62-69 25%    
  Feb 02, 2022 351   Charleston Southern W 75-65 85%    
  Feb 05, 2022 299   Presbyterian W 63-60 64%    
  Feb 09, 2022 183   @ Winthrop L 68-77 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 332   @ Hampton W 64-62 55%    
  Feb 16, 2022 225   Campbell L 61-63 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 275   High Point W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 23, 2022 187   @ Longwood L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 26, 2022 272   @ N.C. A&T L 66-70 36%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.5 1.7 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 4.6 0.3 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 7.7 1.6 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.5 4.6 0.2 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 7.4 8.1 0.9 17.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 5.5 8.5 1.8 0.0 16.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 1.9 0.1 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.0 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.8 12.7 19.6 22.0 18.6 12.0 5.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 51.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 12.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.3% 11.0% 11.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 1.7% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.5
10-6 5.3% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.5 4.7
9-7 12.0% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.2
8-8 18.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.8 17.8
7-9 22.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.5 21.4
6-10 19.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.4
5-11 12.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.6
4-12 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
3-13 1.8% 1.8
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%