N.C. A&T
Big South
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#272
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#247
Pace72.0#90
Improvement+0.5#159

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#273
First Shot-4.5#311
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#116
Layup/Dunks-1.0#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#277
Freethrows-2.2#319
Improvement+2.9#35

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#245
First Shot-0.4#176
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#324
Layups/Dunks+1.4#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#311
Freethrows-0.6#243
Improvement-2.4#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.4% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 15.9% 24.3% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 94.3% 76.4%
Conference Champion 7.3% 11.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.6% 5.4% 3.8%
First Round3.7% 4.7% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 410 - 712 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 53-57 22%     0 - 1 -2.0 -12.6 +10.3
  Nov 13, 2021 238   @ Jacksonville L 54-63 33%     0 - 2 -10.6 -14.7 +3.9
  Nov 15, 2021 191   @ South Florida L 54-56 24%     0 - 3 -0.8 -10.6 +9.7
  Nov 20, 2021 49   @ Wake Forest L 63-87 5%     0 - 4 -11.6 -4.4 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2021 76   @ Stanford L 65-79 8%     0 - 5 -4.1 -5.4 +2.1
  Nov 26, 2021 237   Samford L 75-77 42%     0 - 6 -6.1 -4.1 -1.9
  Nov 27, 2021 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 73-67 68%     1 - 6 -5.1 -5.5 +0.5
  Dec 07, 2021 153   @ East Carolina L 71-82 19%     1 - 7 -7.9 -2.8 -4.9
  Dec 11, 2021 81   @ Central Florida L 68-83 8%     1 - 8 -5.4 -0.5 -4.8
  Dec 14, 2021 174   @ East Tennessee St. W 69-67 22%     2 - 8 +4.1 -0.6 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2021 248   Howard L 57-79 44%     2 - 9 -26.6 -18.7 -8.0
  Jan 05, 2022 299   Presbyterian W 65-57 67%     3 - 9 1 - 0 -2.5 -8.1 +6.0
  Jan 08, 2022 285   @ Radford W 73-72 44%     4 - 9 2 - 0 -3.6 +7.6 -11.1
  Jan 12, 2022 332   Hampton W 67-59 77%     5 - 9 3 - 0 -5.8 -13.8 +7.4
  Jan 15, 2022 275   @ High Point L 71-78 42%     5 - 10 3 - 1 -10.9 -3.5 -7.4
  Jan 19, 2022 249   @ UNC Asheville W 73-71 35%     6 - 10 4 - 1 -0.2 +6.0 -6.0
  Jan 22, 2022 225   Campbell L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 26, 2022 187   @ Longwood L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 29, 2022 311   South Carolina Upstate W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 02, 2022 183   @ Winthrop L 72-80 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 223   @ Gardner-Webb L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 09, 2022 351   Charleston Southern W 79-68 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 187   Longwood L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 16, 2022 332   @ Hampton W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 19, 2022 225   @ Campbell L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 23, 2022 275   High Point W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 26, 2022 285   Radford W 70-66 64%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 7.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 6.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 9.4 5.7 0.8 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 8.4 6.8 0.8 0.0 17.0 4th
5th 0.3 5.0 8.7 1.2 15.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 7.4 2.3 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.0 3.5 0.3 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.0 9.8 17.3 22.1 20.0 14.8 7.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 96.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1
13-3 73.0% 2.0    1.3 0.6 0.0
12-4 42.4% 3.3    1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1
11-5 9.6% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 3.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.1% 31.0% 31.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 10.2% 10.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-3 2.7% 14.9% 14.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3
12-4 7.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.9 0.1 1.0 6.7
11-5 14.8% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4 13.4
10-6 20.0% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 1.4 18.6
9-7 22.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 1.0 21.2
8-8 17.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.5 16.8
7-9 9.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.7
6-10 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-11 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.7 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%