Winthrop
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#183
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#148
Pace74.0#63
Improvement-1.4#238

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#115
First Shot+3.7#73
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#300
Layup/Dunks+3.1#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#101
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement-0.7#226

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#262
First Shot-3.8#297
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#93
Layups/Dunks+0.5#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#314
Freethrows-0.8#253
Improvement-0.7#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 26.1% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 93.2% 96.5% 86.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.5% 96.5%
Conference Champion 46.9% 54.6% 32.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 2.2% 4.1%
First Round22.9% 25.0% 19.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 32 - 33 - 7
Quad 414 - 417 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 196   Mercer W 88-85 OT 62%     1 - 0 -1.0 +0.4 -1.7
  Nov 16, 2021 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-76 36%     1 - 1 -8.2 -7.5 -0.2
  Nov 20, 2021 85   @ Vanderbilt L 63-77 17%     1 - 2 -4.8 -6.4 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2021 52   @ Washington St. L 86-92 12%     1 - 3 +5.7 +14.2 -8.0
  Nov 27, 2021 130   @ Washington W 82-74 29%     2 - 3 +12.9 +3.5 +8.3
  Dec 01, 2021 278   Hartford W 82-75 79%     3 - 3 -2.2 +1.5 -3.8
  Dec 04, 2021 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 64-74 39%     3 - 4 -7.9 -8.1 +0.1
  Dec 07, 2021 102   Furman W 85-80 38%     4 - 4 +7.4 +14.5 -7.0
  Dec 15, 2021 232   @ Elon L 61-63 52%     4 - 5 -3.3 -7.1 +3.6
  Dec 21, 2021 48   Mississippi St. L 63-84 16%     4 - 6 -11.1 -2.4 -10.2
  Jan 10, 2022 225   Campbell W 74-72 67%     5 - 6 1 - 0 -3.5 +6.4 -9.7
  Jan 13, 2022 249   UNC Asheville W 86-80 OT 73%     6 - 6 2 - 0 -1.2 -3.2 +1.2
  Jan 15, 2022 351   @ Charleston Southern W 70-65 86%     7 - 6 3 - 0 -7.5 -1.2 -5.8
  Jan 20, 2022 299   @ Presbyterian W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 223   Gardner-Webb W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 24, 2022 275   @ High Point W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 26, 2022 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 187   @ Longwood L 73-75 39%    
  Feb 02, 2022 272   N.C. A&T W 80-72 78%    
  Feb 05, 2022 332   @ Hampton W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 09, 2022 285   Radford W 77-68 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 299   Presbyterian W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 16, 2022 223   @ Gardner-Webb L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 249   @ UNC Asheville W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 23, 2022 311   South Carolina Upstate W 83-73 84%    
  Feb 26, 2022 351   Charleston Southern W 87-70 94%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 9.8 14.1 12.4 6.3 1.6 46.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 9.5 10.2 4.7 1.2 0.1 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.1 4.5 0.7 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 6.2 11.3 17.0 20.7 18.8 13.6 6.3 1.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 99.1% 6.3    6.0 0.3
14-2 91.4% 12.4    10.5 1.9 0.0
13-3 74.7% 14.1    9.9 4.0 0.2
12-4 47.5% 9.8    4.0 4.3 1.4 0.2
11-5 15.2% 2.6    0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 46.9% 46.9 32.3 11.5 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 45.9% 45.9% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8
15-1 6.3% 39.0% 39.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.0 3.9
14-2 13.6% 34.4% 34.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.5 8.9
13-3 18.8% 29.0% 29.0% 15.1 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.3 13.4
12-4 20.7% 24.6% 24.6% 15.4 0.2 2.5 2.4 15.6
11-5 17.0% 18.9% 18.9% 15.7 0.1 0.9 2.3 13.8
10-6 11.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.9 0.2 1.4 9.8
9-7 6.2% 12.1% 12.1% 15.9 0.1 0.7 5.5
8-8 2.9% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.7
7-9 1.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-10 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.9 4.1 10.3 8.8 75.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.3 13.6 44.4 41.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%