South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#311
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#278
Pace70.2#136
Improvement+5.0#16

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#227
First Shot-0.5#195
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#288
Layup/Dunks-6.1#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#31
Freethrows-2.3#322
Improvement+4.9#6

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#339
First Shot-5.5#328
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#281
Layups/Dunks-4.1#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#128
Freethrows-4.0#348
Improvement+0.0#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 2.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.4% 5.2% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.2% 81.0% 50.4%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.6%
First Four2.3% 2.4% 1.6%
First Round1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 49 - 810 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 113   @ South Carolina L 60-78 8%     0 - 1 -11.4 -14.4 +5.5
  Nov 12, 2021 195   @ Charlotte L 64-76 18%     0 - 2 -11.0 -5.7 -6.1
  Nov 18, 2021 174   @ East Tennessee St. L 43-56 16%     0 - 3 -10.9 -25.7 +13.2
  Nov 23, 2021 346   @ South Carolina St. W 82-78 59%     1 - 3 -6.8 +1.3 -8.4
  Nov 27, 2021 102   Furman L 77-87 15%     1 - 4 -7.6 +6.7 -14.8
  Dec 01, 2021 327   NC Central L 65-67 68%     1 - 5 -15.5 -12.6 -2.9
  Dec 04, 2021 312   Western Carolina L 73-78 60%     1 - 6 -16.2 -6.3 -9.9
  Dec 11, 2021 49   @ Wake Forest L 53-79 4%     1 - 7 -13.6 -17.4 +5.7
  Dec 14, 2021 15   @ Tennessee L 52-96 2%     1 - 8 -26.9 -10.6 -15.5
  Dec 21, 2021 84   @ Ohio L 70-85 6%     1 - 9 -5.7 +3.8 -9.9
  Jan 06, 2022 285   Radford L 77-82 54%     1 - 10 0 - 1 -14.7 +0.2 -14.8
  Jan 08, 2022 299   @ Presbyterian W 82-72 38%     2 - 10 1 - 1 +4.5 +9.9 -5.1
  Jan 12, 2022 275   High Point W 66-65 51%     3 - 10 2 - 1 -8.0 -4.5 -3.4
  Jan 15, 2022 249   @ UNC Asheville W 76-73 27%     4 - 10 3 - 1 +0.8 +7.1 -6.0
  Jan 19, 2022 223   @ Gardner-Webb W 74-61 22%     5 - 10 4 - 1 +12.6 +4.8 +8.1
  Jan 22, 2022 351   Charleston Southern W 81-72 81%    
  Jan 26, 2022 183   Winthrop L 76-81 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 272   @ N.C. A&T L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 02, 2022 332   @ Hampton W 69-68 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 225   Campbell L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 09, 2022 187   @ Longwood L 67-77 16%    
  Feb 12, 2022 249   UNC Asheville L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 16, 2022 299   Presbyterian W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 19, 2022 351   @ Charleston Southern W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 23, 2022 183   @ Winthrop L 73-83 16%    
  Feb 26, 2022 223   Gardner-Webb L 70-73 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 7.5 4.2 0.4 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.8 5.6 0.7 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.3 5.9 8.7 1.2 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 9.0 2.6 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.1 4.6 0.2 11.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.2 4.7 0.7 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.4 2.2 7.3 14.8 21.2 21.4 16.4 10.3 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 87.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 72.6% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 40.7% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 9.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.3% 10.8% 10.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-3 1.2% 10.2% 10.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.1
12-4 4.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.2
11-5 10.3% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.6 9.7
10-6 16.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 15.8
9-7 21.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 20.8
8-8 21.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 20.9
7-9 14.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.7
6-10 7.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.3
5-11 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-12 0.4% 0.4
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%