UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#249
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#255
Pace66.7#243
Improvement+0.6#152

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#209
First Shot-0.5#197
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#235
Layup/Dunks+1.2#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#103
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement+1.9#72

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#285
First Shot-1.8#246
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#304
Layups/Dunks-11.0#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#2
Freethrows+0.0#194
Improvement-1.3#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 9.0% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 56.5% 71.0% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 62.7% 77.5% 49.2%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four3.7% 4.1% 3.3%
First Round5.3% 7.1% 3.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 412 - 814 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 50   @ UAB L 77-102 7%     0 - 1 -13.0 +7.6 -20.0
  Nov 14, 2021 100   @ Chattanooga L 45-75 12%     0 - 2 -22.2 -21.1 -4.7
  Nov 18, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 61-55 61%     1 - 2 -1.6 -18.1 +16.1
  Nov 23, 2021 34   @ North Carolina L 53-72 5%     1 - 3 -5.0 -12.1 +6.1
  Dec 01, 2021 283   The Citadel W 65-58 68%     2 - 3 -2.5 -10.2 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2021 327   NC Central W 82-66 80%     3 - 3 +2.5 -1.2 +2.5
  Dec 08, 2021 100   Chattanooga L 73-78 24%     3 - 4 -2.2 +11.9 -14.9
  Dec 11, 2021 312   @ Western Carolina W 73-72 56%     4 - 4 -5.2 -6.3 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2021 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-79 63%     4 - 5 -19.0 -10.8 -7.9
  Dec 18, 2021 174   East Tennessee St. W 79-64 43%     5 - 5 +12.0 +8.4 +4.7
  Jan 05, 2022 225   @ Campbell W 60-54 34%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +5.5 -1.3 +8.1
  Jan 08, 2022 351   Charleston Southern W 82-59 88%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +5.5 -0.8 +5.8
  Jan 13, 2022 183   @ Winthrop L 80-86 OT 27%     7 - 6 2 - 1 -4.3 -5.3 +1.7
  Jan 15, 2022 311   South Carolina Upstate L 73-76 73%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -14.1 -1.9 -12.5
  Jan 19, 2022 272   N.C. A&T L 71-73 65%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -10.6 +2.3 -13.2
  Jan 22, 2022 285   @ Radford L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 26, 2022 223   Gardner-Webb W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 299   @ Presbyterian W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 02, 2022 187   Longwood L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 275   @ High Point L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 09, 2022 332   Hampton W 70-61 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 16, 2022 351   @ Charleston Southern W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 183   Winthrop L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 23, 2022 223   @ Gardner-Webb L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 299   Presbyterian W 67-61 72%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 5.6 2.5 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.8 5.0 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.3 5.4 7.6 1.1 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 9.2 2.5 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.3 4.7 0.2 13.5 7th
8th 0.6 4.4 5.5 0.8 11.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 4.5 1.4 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 2.3 1.1 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.2 5.7 11.4 17.5 21.0 18.9 13.4 6.7 2.3 0.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 72.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 39.2% 0.9    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 9.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.4% 22.0% 22.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
12-4 2.3% 18.6% 18.6% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.9
11-5 6.7% 17.2% 17.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 5.6
10-6 13.4% 12.2% 12.2% 15.8 0.3 1.4 11.7
9-7 18.9% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.1 1.6 17.2
8-8 21.0% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1 19.9
7-9 17.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 16.8
6-10 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 11.2
5-11 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.6
4-12 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.0 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.3 6.4 53.2 40.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%