Longwood
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#187
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#214
Pace67.1#228
Improvement+0.9#133

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#201
First Shot-1.7#236
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#122
Layup/Dunks-1.6#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
Freethrows-1.8#301
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#170
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#114
Layups/Dunks+2.3#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#277
Freethrows+0.3#172
Improvement+0.8#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 27.0% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 96.6% 98.5% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.5% 97.0%
Conference Champion 52.5% 61.0% 36.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.1% 6.1% 8.9%
First Round21.8% 24.4% 16.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 5
Quad 417 - 517 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 21   @ Iowa L 73-106 7%     0 - 1 -17.3 -1.0 -14.1
  Nov 19, 2021 330   American W 82-42 88%     1 - 1 +26.3 +11.9 +19.3
  Nov 20, 2021 254   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 82-55 73%     2 - 1 +19.6 +10.9 +10.5
  Nov 21, 2021 312   Western Carolina L 53-64 83%     2 - 2 -22.2 -24.5 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2021 184   @ Old Dominion L 61-62 40%     2 - 3 +0.6 -0.4 +0.9
  Nov 30, 2021 155   @ Georgetown L 83-91 35%     2 - 4 -5.0 +5.7 -10.2
  Dec 04, 2021 358   Delaware St. W 78-58 98%     3 - 4 -4.8 -5.1 +0.9
  Dec 11, 2021 326   Morgan St. W 93-55 87%     4 - 4 +24.6 +4.7 +16.0
  Dec 22, 2021 141   @ Abilene Christian L 58-74 32%     4 - 5 -12.1 -15.2 +4.5
  Jan 12, 2022 285   @ Radford W 83-75 OT 64%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +3.4 +2.5 +0.2
  Jan 15, 2022 223   Gardner-Webb W 66-60 67%     6 - 5 2 - 0 +0.6 -5.1 +5.9
  Jan 19, 2022 225   Campbell W 72-64 67%     7 - 5 3 - 0 +2.5 +4.9 -1.3
  Jan 22, 2022 299   @ Presbyterian W 66-61 66%    
  Jan 24, 2022 332   @ Hampton W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 26, 2022 272   N.C. A&T W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 183   Winthrop W 75-73 61%    
  Feb 02, 2022 249   @ UNC Asheville W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 351   @ Charleston Southern W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 09, 2022 311   South Carolina Upstate W 77-67 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 272   @ N.C. A&T W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 14, 2022 275   High Point W 70-62 79%    
  Feb 16, 2022 275   @ High Point W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 19, 2022 332   Hampton W 71-58 89%    
  Feb 23, 2022 285   Radford W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 26, 2022 225   @ Campbell L 63-64 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 10.0 15.2 14.3 8.0 2.2 52.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 9.1 9.2 4.0 1.0 0.0 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 2.4 0.3 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.8 10.0 15.7 19.8 19.2 15.2 8.0 2.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
15-1 99.6% 8.0    7.7 0.3
14-2 93.8% 14.3    12.3 2.0 0.0
13-3 79.0% 15.2    10.6 4.4 0.2
12-4 50.6% 10.0    3.8 4.6 1.5 0.2
11-5 16.8% 2.6    0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 52.5% 52.5 37.0 12.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.2% 41.8% 41.8% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.3
15-1 8.0% 41.3% 41.3% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.3 4.7
14-2 15.2% 33.3% 33.3% 15.2 0.0 0.5 3.1 1.5 10.2
13-3 19.2% 28.8% 28.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 13.7
12-4 19.8% 22.5% 22.5% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.7 15.4
11-5 15.7% 20.0% 20.0% 15.9 0.2 2.9 12.6
10-6 10.0% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5 8.5
9-7 5.8% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.7 5.0
8-8 2.7% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.2 2.5
7-9 1.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-10 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.4 2.2 8.1 14.2 75.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.9 1.1 27.0 52.6 19.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%