Gardner-Webb
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#223
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#277
Pace68.8#177
Improvement-2.0#264

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#267
First Shot-4.4#306
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#101
Layup/Dunks+1.3#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#238
Freethrows-2.6#335
Improvement-0.2#190

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#156
First Shot-0.6#186
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#83
Layups/Dunks+0.3#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#161
Freethrows-3.0#331
Improvement-1.7#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 17.4% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 44.8% 65.1% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 96.0% 81.7%
Conference Champion 7.6% 16.9% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
First Round9.9% 13.5% 8.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 412 - 614 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 108   @ UNLV L 58-64 18%     0 - 1 +0.8 -12.2 +13.2
  Nov 13, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 69-86 6%     0 - 2 -2.6 +3.1 -5.6
  Nov 16, 2021 10   @ Duke L 52-92 3%     0 - 3 -20.4 -14.6 -4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 312   Western Carolina W 87-59 79%     1 - 3 +16.8 +11.7 +6.6
  Nov 29, 2021 327   NC Central W 83-58 84%     2 - 3 +11.5 +2.0 +8.4
  Dec 04, 2021 153   @ East Carolina L 52-62 28%     2 - 4 -6.9 -20.0 +13.0
  Dec 08, 2021 115   Wofford L 70-78 34%     2 - 5 -6.8 -4.7 -2.0
  Dec 11, 2021 197   @ VMI L 61-64 35%     2 - 6 -2.0 -16.3 +14.4
  Dec 15, 2021 327   @ NC Central L 71-72 71%     2 - 7 -9.5 -9.1 -0.3
  Dec 29, 2021 201   @ Georgia W 77-60 36%     3 - 7 +17.9 +3.6 +14.6
  Jan 05, 2022 351   @ Charleston Southern W 88-63 82%     4 - 7 1 - 0 +12.5 +7.0 +4.8
  Jan 08, 2022 332   Hampton W 78-69 85%     5 - 7 2 - 0 -4.8 +8.4 -12.4
  Jan 12, 2022 299   Presbyterian W 64-61 77%     6 - 7 3 - 0 -7.5 -10.0 +2.6
  Jan 15, 2022 187   @ Longwood L 60-66 33%     6 - 8 3 - 1 -4.5 -9.4 +4.7
  Jan 19, 2022 311   South Carolina Upstate L 61-74 78%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -24.1 -18.1 -6.3
  Jan 22, 2022 183   @ Winthrop L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 26, 2022 249   @ UNC Asheville L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 285   Radford W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 02, 2022 275   @ High Point W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 272   N.C. A&T W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 09, 2022 225   @ Campbell L 62-64 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 351   Charleston Southern W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 16, 2022 183   Winthrop W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 299   @ Presbyterian W 64-61 58%    
  Feb 23, 2022 249   UNC Asheville W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 73-70 60%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.2 0.6 7.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.8 6.8 4.8 1.1 0.1 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 10.1 6.6 1.2 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 8.1 7.1 0.8 0.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.2 4.2 7.7 1.3 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 6.6 2.2 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.9 3.2 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.7 15.4 20.6 21.4 15.7 9.3 3.3 0.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 87.3% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
13-3 66.2% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1
12-4 36.2% 3.4    1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1
11-5 9.1% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.1 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.6% 32.1% 32.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-3 3.3% 27.3% 27.3% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 2.4
12-4 9.3% 25.8% 25.8% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.7 6.9
11-5 15.7% 19.8% 19.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.9 12.6
10-6 21.4% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 0.1 2.9 18.3
9-7 20.6% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3 18.3
8-8 15.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 1.3 14.2
7-9 8.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.3 8.4
6-10 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.6
5-11 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 12.0 86.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.6 6.9 35.6 51.5 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%