Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 UC Irvine 33.1%   14   4 - 5 1 - 1 14 - 9 11 - 5 +4.3      -1.1 207 +5.4 49 65.2 288 +4.2 109 +3.7 3
143 UC Riverside 17.6%   7 - 5 3 - 1 16 - 10 12 - 6 +1.2      -2.8 258 +4.1 71 64.7 298 +4.5 107 +3.3 4
161 Hawaii 13.5%   5 - 5 3 - 0 13 - 11 11 - 6 +0.2      +1.4 132 -1.3 210 65.4 279 -1.9 199 +13.7 1
170 Cal St. Fullerton 12.0%   7 - 5 3 - 0 15 - 11 11 - 6 -0.3      +1.3 137 -1.6 217 68.1 189 +0.3 165 +11.7 2
176 UC Santa Barbara 9.3%   5 - 7 0 - 3 13 - 13 8 - 9 -0.6      +0.8 156 -1.4 214 65.5 276 -8.1 293 -15.5 11
208 UC Davis 6.4%   6 - 4 1 - 1 13 - 11 8 - 8 -2.2      -0.5 191 -1.7 223 71.4 104 -0.8 185 -6.3 7
228 Cal St. Bakersfield 3.7%   4 - 6 1 - 2 9 - 14 6 - 10 -3.4      -4.4 295 +1.0 140 64.2 307 -4.3 244 -9.4 9
239 Long Beach St. 3.2%   4 - 9 2 - 1 10 - 17 8 - 9 -4.2      -2.2 235 -2.0 232 77.4 21 -3.2 221 -1.7 5
247 UC San Diego 0.0%   6 - 8 2 - 3 12 - 16 8 - 11 -4.6      -2.6 249 -2.0 234 69.3 155 -3.4 229 -3.6 6
296 Cal St. Northridge 0.7%   4 - 9 1 - 3 8 - 19 5 - 13 -7.9      -5.5 321 -2.4 242 65.2 289 -5.6 263 -9.5 10
300 Cal Poly 0.5%   3 - 11 1 - 3 7 - 20 5 - 12 -8.1      -5.0 311 -3.1 272 61.6 337 -9.9 310 -8.9 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 2.8 29.4 24.5 17.6 11.4 7.4 4.4 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
UC Riverside 2.4 42.0 22.4 14.8 9.2 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 2.9 28.5 22.6 18.2 12.2 8.1 4.7 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 3.6 18.0 17.6 17.3 15.9 11.8 8.5 5.3 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 6.0 3.0 5.3 8.9 11.4 13.8 15.1 13.9 11.4 8.7 5.7 2.9
UC Davis 5.9 3.0 5.7 9.6 12.6 14.4 14.0 12.9 11.3 8.7 5.4 2.5
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.7 0.5 1.6 3.0 4.9 7.5 10.9 14.0 16.6 18.1 14.2 8.8
Long Beach St. 6.3 2.1 4.3 7.1 10.2 13.1 14.5 15.0 14.0 11.1 6.2 2.5
UC San Diego 5.8 3.4 5.8 8.9 12.4 14.3 15.3 13.6 10.9 8.2 4.8 2.3
Cal St. Northridge 8.9 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 6.0 8.3 12.4 17.7 24.0 24.3
Cal Poly 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.6 6.4 10.4 17.2 25.9 33.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 4.8 8.7 13.4 16.9 19.3 18.0 10.6 4.0
UC Riverside 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.4 11.0 14.8 18.2 18.0 14.1 8.2 3.4 0.6
Hawaii 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.7 9.9 14.1 16.8 17.3 14.8 9.8 5.2 1.8 0.3
Cal St. Fullerton 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.5 9.6 13.9 16.7 17.4 14.7 10.1 5.3 2.6 0.6 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 8 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 7.1 11.4 15.1 17.1 16.1 12.6 8.6 4.2 1.4 0.2
UC Davis 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.3 6.9 11.3 14.6 16.7 16.1 13.3 9.2 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 6 - 14 0.4 1.8 5.7 10.3 15.8 18.2 17.3 13.8 8.8 5.0 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.2 1.2 4.1 8.8 14.1 16.9 17.4 15.2 10.9 6.5 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 3.0 6.4 11.2 15.3 17.5 16.4 13.2 8.3 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 5 - 15 1.8 6.8 13.2 18.2 18.9 15.9 11.4 7.5 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 5 - 15 2.6 9.1 17.1 21.4 19.6 14.3 9.0 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 29.4% 16.4 9.7 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 42.0% 27.9 10.7 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 28.5% 16.8 8.5 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 18.0% 10.1 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.0% 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 3.0% 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 2.1% 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 3.4% 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 33.1% 33.0% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 4.3 12.7 9.9 3.9 0.6 66.9 0.1%
UC Riverside 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.3 7.2 5.4 1.2 82.4 0.0%
Hawaii 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.4 4.2 86.5 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.0 2.9 88.0 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.2 90.7 0.0%
UC Davis 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.7 93.6 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 96.3 0.0%
Long Beach St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 96.8 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 33.1% 0.3% 33.0% 5.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 17.6% 0.3% 17.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 13.5% 1.6% 12.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 12.0% 0.9% 11.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 9.3% 3.5% 8.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.4% 1.1% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.7% 1.0% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 3.2% 1.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 95.3% 1.0 4.7 95.3 0.0
2nd Round 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0