Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#228
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#244
Pace64.2#307
Improvement+2.2#80

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#295
First Shot-6.1#329
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#64
Layup/Dunks-6.0#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+9.3#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.6#350
Freethrows-1.8#302
Improvement+3.3#23

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot+1.2#135
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#187
Layups/Dunks+5.8#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#269
Freethrows-3.3#339
Improvement-1.1#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.0% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 19.7% 29.9% 10.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.0% 13.2% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 9.0% 23.9%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round3.3% 4.6% 2.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 47 - 410 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 12   @ UCLA L 58-95 3%     0 - 1 -17.8 -10.8 -3.8
  Nov 18, 2021 319   @ Northern Arizona L 64-74 65%     0 - 2 -17.3 -12.1 -5.3
  Nov 26, 2021 54   @ Boise St. W 46-39 9%     1 - 2 +18.6 -11.9 +31.5
  Dec 11, 2021 325   Idaho W 59-58 82%     2 - 2 -12.2 -12.5 +0.5
  Dec 15, 2021 141   @ Abilene Christian L 59-69 24%     2 - 3 -6.1 -13.7 +8.4
  Dec 18, 2021 69   @ Colorado L 46-60 11%     2 - 4 -3.7 -15.4 +10.1
  Dec 21, 2021 243   Dartmouth W 61-57 64%     3 - 4 -3.0 -6.0 +3.5
  Dec 30, 2021 170   Cal St. Fullerton L 67-73 48%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -8.8 -8.5 -0.3
  Jan 15, 2022 143   UC Riverside L 64-65 42%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -2.3 +1.3 -3.7
  Jan 18, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 73-60 75%     4 - 6 1 - 2 +2.4 +2.6 +1.0
  Jan 20, 2022 161   Hawaii L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 110   @ UC Irvine L 55-65 16%    
  Jan 29, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego L 64-65 43%    
  Feb 03, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 10, 2022 176   UC Santa Barbara L 64-65 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 65-58 75%    
  Feb 17, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 56-63 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 22, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly W 62-60 56%    
  Feb 27, 2022 161   @ Hawaii L 62-68 28%    
  Mar 03, 2022 247   UC San Diego W 67-63 64%    
  Mar 05, 2022 110   UC Irvine L 58-63 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 14 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 2.2 0.3 4.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 6.1 2.1 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 7.4 4.0 0.2 14.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 7.6 5.8 0.8 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.6 6.8 1.3 0.0 18.1 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 5.6 5.0 1.3 0.0 14.2 10th
11th 0.4 1.6 3.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 8.8 11th
Total 0.4 1.8 5.7 10.3 15.8 18.2 17.3 13.8 8.8 5.0 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 75.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 27.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-9 8.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 33.0% 33.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.6% 18.0% 18.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-9 2.1% 16.0% 16.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
10-10 5.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.5
9-11 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 15.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 8.0
8-12 13.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.4 0.5 0.4 13.0
7-13 17.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 16.6
6-14 18.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 17.9
5-15 15.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.7
4-16 10.3% 10.3
3-17 5.7% 5.7
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%