UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#143
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#107
Pace64.7#298
Improvement-1.3#234

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#258
First Shot+0.6#157
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#346
Layup/Dunks-1.9#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#156
Freethrows-1.5#293
Improvement-2.1#295

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#71
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#23
Layups/Dunks+2.9#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#88
Freethrows+2.5#28
Improvement+0.8#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 20.7% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 91.4% 96.8% 86.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 95.3% 82.3%
Conference Champion 42.0% 55.1% 30.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round17.5% 20.7% 14.8%
Second Round1.6% 2.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 412 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 33   @ San Diego St. L 53-66 12%     0 - 1 +1.0 -6.4 +6.9
  Nov 11, 2021 119   @ Arizona St. W 66-65 33%     1 - 1 +6.9 +2.7 +4.2
  Nov 17, 2021 172   @ San Diego L 62-74 46%     1 - 2 -9.9 -8.3 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2021 168   @ UTEP W 52-40 45%     2 - 2 +14.4 -13.6 +28.8
  Nov 26, 2021 320   Florida A&M W 60-49 90%     3 - 2 -1.6 -13.9 +12.8
  Nov 29, 2021 38   @ St. Mary's L 50-67 13%     3 - 3 -3.8 -3.5 -3.4
  Dec 01, 2021 40   @ Oregon L 65-71 14%     3 - 4 +7.1 +11.3 -5.5
  Dec 12, 2021 236   California Baptist W 70-54 77%     4 - 4 +9.5 -6.4 +16.0
  Jan 06, 2022 247   UC San Diego W 59-51 79%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +0.9 -11.3 +13.0
  Jan 08, 2022 110   UC Irvine L 51-68 48%     5 - 5 1 - 1 -15.2 -15.1 -1.0
  Jan 13, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly W 57-46 74%     6 - 5 2 - 1 +5.4 -10.9 +17.6
  Jan 15, 2022 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 58%     7 - 5 3 - 1 +0.1 +1.9 -1.7
  Jan 20, 2022 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 22, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 65-58 72%    
  Jan 27, 2022 239   Long Beach St. W 72-64 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 01, 2022 208   UC Davis W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 03, 2022 161   Hawaii W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 10, 2022 110   @ UC Irvine L 57-63 29%    
  Feb 12, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 17, 2022 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 63-56 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 66-54 87%    
  Feb 24, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 67-55 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 176   UC Santa Barbara W 66-62 67%    
  Mar 03, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-66 45%    
  Mar 05, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. W 70-67 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.4 11.2 12.5 8.1 3.4 0.6 42.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.9 8.9 6.2 1.6 0.1 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 6.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.2 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.4 11.0 14.8 18.2 18.0 14.1 8.2 3.4 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-4 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.0
15-5 98.6% 8.1    7.4 0.7 0.0
14-6 88.4% 12.5    9.5 2.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 62.3% 11.2    5.5 4.7 1.0 0.0
12-8 29.9% 5.4    1.4 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
11-9 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 42.0% 42.0 27.9 10.7 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.6% 45.4% 45.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 3.4% 35.9% 35.9% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2
15-5 8.2% 29.6% 29.6% 13.5 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 5.8
14-6 14.1% 25.6% 25.6% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 10.5
13-7 18.0% 20.6% 20.6% 14.2 0.4 2.1 1.2 0.0 14.3
12-8 18.2% 16.1% 16.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.2 15.3
11-9 14.8% 11.8% 11.8% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 13.1
10-10 11.0% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 9.9
9-11 6.4% 6.7% 6.7% 15.5 0.2 0.2 6.0
8-12 3.4% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.2
7-13 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.3 7.2 5.4 1.2 82.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.8 2.1 2.1 3.5 16.8 52.4 21.0 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%