Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#300
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#310
Pace61.6#337
Improvement-1.4#237

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#311
First Shot-5.9#327
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#113
Layup/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#288
Freethrows+2.0#47
Improvement+1.4#89

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#272
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#338
Layups/Dunks+4.2#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#287
Freethrows-2.8#326
Improvement-2.8#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.8% 32.1% 56.3%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 45 - 87 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 188   North Dakota St. L 57-60 33%     0 - 1 -6.6 -11.5 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2021 279   Sacramento St. L 57-58 55%     0 - 2 -10.3 -10.0 -0.5
  Nov 19, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara L 57-87 7%     0 - 3 -21.6 -13.1 -8.5
  Nov 22, 2021 218   Nicholls St. L 72-75 OT 30%     0 - 4 -5.6 -8.8 +3.4
  Nov 24, 2021 325   Idaho W 67-63 60%     1 - 4 -6.6 -12.5 +6.0
  Dec 02, 2021 236   @ California Baptist L 55-64 26%     1 - 5 -10.5 -11.6 -0.2
  Dec 05, 2021 172   @ San Diego L 51-52 17%     1 - 6 +1.1 -7.3 +8.2
  Dec 11, 2021 274   @ Portland St. W 61-58 34%     2 - 6 -0.9 -10.9 +10.0
  Dec 13, 2021 245   @ Portland L 77-78 28%     2 - 7 -3.1 +7.2 -10.3
  Dec 17, 2021 78   @ Fresno St. L 48-83 6%     2 - 8 -25.3 -10.9 -19.6
  Jan 08, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge L 55-68 40%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -18.4 -10.1 -10.4
  Jan 13, 2022 143   UC Riverside L 46-57 26%     2 - 10 0 - 2 -12.3 -18.6 +5.0
  Jan 15, 2022 208   UC Davis W 82-74 37%     3 - 10 1 - 2 +3.3 +8.7 -5.2
  Jan 18, 2022 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-73 25%     3 - 11 1 - 3 -13.9 -5.0 -10.1
  Jan 22, 2022 161   Hawaii L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 27, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego L 62-68 27%    
  Jan 29, 2022 110   @ UC Irvine L 53-68 8%    
  Feb 03, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-71 16%    
  Feb 05, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. L 66-72 25%    
  Feb 10, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 63-61 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 176   UC Santa Barbara L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 17, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 63-71 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 54-66 13%    
  Feb 22, 2022 228   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-62 44%    
  Feb 25, 2022 161   @ Hawaii L 59-70 15%    
  Mar 03, 2022 110   UC Irvine L 56-66 20%    
  Mar 05, 2022 247   UC San Diego L 65-66 48%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 5 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.0 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.3 3.0 0.2 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.8 7.8 5.6 0.8 0.0 17.2 9th
10th 0.6 4.7 10.8 8.1 1.6 0.1 25.9 10th
11th 2.6 8.5 12.2 7.7 1.9 0.1 33.0 11th
Total 2.6 9.1 17.1 21.4 19.6 14.3 9.0 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 5.7% 0.0    0.0
10-10 1.2% 0.0    0.0
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 1.9
8-12 4.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.2
7-13 9.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.9
6-14 14.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.1
5-15 19.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.6
4-16 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
3-17 17.1% 17.1
2-18 9.1% 9.1
1-19 2.6% 2.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%