UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#110
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#109
Pace65.2#288
Improvement-4.1#337

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#207
First Shot-2.7#266
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#67
Layup/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#287
Freethrows+2.1#46
Improvement-1.3#264

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#49
First Shot+2.2#106
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#12
Layups/Dunks+0.7#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#80
Freethrows-1.8#288
Improvement-2.7#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.1% 35.0% 26.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 92.9% 95.8% 83.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 88.0% 64.2%
Conference Champion 29.4% 34.8% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round33.0% 34.9% 26.7%
Second Round5.4% 6.0% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 47 - 7
Quad 49 - 216 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 93   @ New Mexico St. L 51-62 33%     0 - 1 -2.3 -14.3 +11.1
  Nov 13, 2021 54   Boise St. W 58-50 41%     1 - 1 +14.6 -4.7 +19.9
  Nov 20, 2021 253   Pepperdine W 82-48 86%     2 - 1 +26.6 +11.6 +17.0
  Nov 27, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara W 69-64 34%     3 - 1 +13.4 +1.9 +11.7
  Dec 11, 2021 78   @ Fresno St. L 55-63 30%     3 - 2 +1.7 -7.7 +8.9
  Dec 15, 2021 26   @ USC L 61-66 15%     3 - 3 +10.2 -3.3 +13.4
  Dec 19, 2021 190   Duquesne L 54-76 70%     3 - 4 -23.3 -12.0 -14.4
  Jan 08, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside W 68-51 52%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +20.7 +4.0 +17.6
  Jan 13, 2022 161   @ Hawaii L 56-72 56%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -13.3 -12.3 -2.3
  Jan 20, 2022 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-63 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 27, 2022 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-55 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 68-53 92%    
  Feb 03, 2022 176   @ UC Santa Barbara W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-57 80%    
  Feb 10, 2022 143   UC Riverside W 63-57 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 208   UC Davis W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 15, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 161   Hawaii W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 24, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 26, 2022 239   Long Beach St. W 74-63 85%    
  Mar 03, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly W 66-56 80%    
  Mar 05, 2022 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 63-58 66%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.8 10.7 9.1 3.9 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.4 10.1 6.6 1.5 0.1 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.3 7.8 4.1 0.8 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.8 2.7 0.4 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 4.8 8.7 13.4 16.9 19.3 18.0 10.6 4.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 97.3% 3.9    3.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 85.4% 9.1    6.5 2.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 59.2% 10.7    5.3 4.3 1.0 0.0
12-8 24.8% 4.8    1.1 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-9 5.1% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 29.4% 29.4 16.4 9.7 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 4.0% 55.8% 53.8% 2.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 4.4%
14-6 10.6% 50.1% 50.1% 12.6 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 5.3
13-7 18.0% 43.0% 43.0% 13.1 0.0 1.2 4.8 1.7 0.1 10.3
12-8 19.3% 35.0% 35.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.0 0.4 12.6
11-9 16.9% 30.7% 30.7% 13.8 0.1 1.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 11.7
10-10 13.4% 22.1% 22.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.0 10.4
9-11 8.7% 18.9% 18.9% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.1 7.1
8-12 4.8% 16.7% 16.7% 15.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 4.0
7-13 2.7% 13.3% 13.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 2.3
6-14 1.0% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.1% 33.0% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 4.3 12.7 9.9 3.9 0.6 66.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 10.1 0.4 2.5 8.0 6.0 4.7 12.5 15.3 17.6 23.6 9.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 9.1% 11.9 0.8 0.6 6.4 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 2.4% 12.0 2.4