Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#296
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#263
Pace65.2#289
Improvement-1.2#226

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#321
First Shot-6.3#331
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#119
Layup/Dunks-4.2#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.2#354
Freethrows+0.3#152
Improvement-1.2#254

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#242
First Shot-2.1#253
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#194
Layups/Dunks-2.2#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
Freethrows-0.4#228
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 2.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 4.8% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.4% 23.3% 48.5%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 46 - 68 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 26   @ USC L 49-89 3%     0 - 1 -24.8 -15.0 -11.2
  Nov 13, 2021 65   @ Notre Dame L 52-68 5%     0 - 2 -5.3 -9.9 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2021 222   Eastern Washington L 64-67 OT 40%     0 - 3 -8.4 -13.6 +5.3
  Nov 20, 2021 297   Dixie St. W 79-73 60%     1 - 3 -4.4 -2.5 -2.2
  Nov 28, 2021 172   @ San Diego W 56-52 17%     2 - 3 +6.1 -4.4 +11.2
  Dec 04, 2021 78   @ Fresno St. L 43-61 6%     2 - 4 -8.3 -15.4 +3.8
  Dec 07, 2021 54   Boise St. L 48-74 9%     2 - 5 -19.4 -14.1 -7.9
  Dec 10, 2021 188   @ North Dakota St. L 54-68 19%     2 - 6 -12.6 -15.8 +2.4
  Dec 18, 2021 274   Portland St. W 69-66 54%     3 - 6 -5.9 -5.4 -0.5
  Jan 01, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego L 64-72 29%     3 - 7 0 - 1 -10.1 -9.7 -0.4
  Jan 08, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 68-55 60%     4 - 7 1 - 1 +2.4 +1.8 +2.7
  Jan 13, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-79 17%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -12.8 -9.0 -3.8
  Jan 15, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. L 55-71 28%     4 - 9 1 - 3 -17.7 -21.8 +5.1
  Jan 20, 2022 208   UC Davis L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 143   UC Riverside L 58-65 28%    
  Jan 25, 2022 176   UC Santa Barbara L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 28, 2022 161   @ Hawaii L 61-72 15%    
  Feb 03, 2022 247   UC San Diego L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 110   UC Irvine L 57-67 20%    
  Feb 10, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly L 61-63 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-65 25%    
  Feb 17, 2022 239   Long Beach St. L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 19, 2022 170   Cal St. Fullerton L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 24, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 55-67 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 64-72 22%    
  Mar 01, 2022 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 61-71 18%    
  Mar 05, 2022 161   Hawaii L 63-69 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 1.7 0.2 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.0 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 6.1 4.0 0.4 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.8 6.3 1.0 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.6 4.2 9.6 7.8 1.7 0.1 24.0 10th
11th 1.8 6.2 8.8 6.2 1.3 0.0 24.3 11th
Total 1.8 6.8 13.2 18.2 18.9 15.9 11.4 7.5 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 38.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 7.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-10 1.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-11 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.7
8-12 7.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.3
7-13 11.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.3
6-14 15.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.8
5-15 18.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.9
4-16 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.2
3-17 13.2% 13.2
2-18 6.8% 6.8
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%