UC San Diego
Big West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#247
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#229
Pace69.3#155
Improvement-6.7#356

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#249
First Shot+0.6#154
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#340
Layup/Dunks-0.3#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#60
Freethrows+0.8#116
Improvement-2.8#325

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#234
First Shot-2.8#271
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#109
Layups/Dunks-6.9#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#100
Freethrows+3.0#15
Improvement-3.8#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 29.3% 38.3% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 38.3% 15.9%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 2.6% 9.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 83 - 10
Quad 410 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 107   @ California W 80-67 14%     1 - 0 +19.9 +10.8 +8.8
  Nov 13, 2021 271   George Washington W 75-55 65%     2 - 0 +11.4 -5.5 +15.6
  Nov 20, 2021 279   @ Sacramento St. W 71-56 49%     3 - 0 +10.7 -2.4 +13.1
  Nov 24, 2021 178   @ Montana L 61-71 27%     3 - 1 -8.1 -6.8 -2.0
  Nov 25, 2021 309   Southern Miss L 55-56 65%     3 - 2 -9.5 -16.5 +6.9
  Dec 02, 2021 263   Eastern Michigan W 83-74 63%     4 - 2 +1.0 +11.0 -9.7
  Dec 12, 2021 160   @ Seattle L 51-73 24%     4 - 3 -19.3 -17.4 -2.9
  Dec 15, 2021 317   @ Denver L 56-64 59%     4 - 4 -14.9 -19.9 +4.9
  Dec 22, 2021 33   @ San Diego St. L 57-78 5%     4 - 5 -7.0 -0.7 -7.6
  Dec 30, 2021 176   UC Santa Barbara W 85-83 OT 44%     5 - 5 1 - 0 -1.1 +0.8 -2.1
  Jan 01, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 72-64 71%     6 - 5 2 - 0 -2.4 -4.5 +2.1
  Jan 06, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 51-59 21%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -4.3 -11.5 +6.5
  Jan 08, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 71-78 32%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -6.6 +6.3 -13.8
  Jan 15, 2022 161   @ Hawaii L 56-79 24%     6 - 8 2 - 3 -20.3 -14.3 -7.1
  Jan 20, 2022 239   Long Beach St. W 75-73 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 27, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 68-62 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 57%    
  Feb 03, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 10, 2022 208   UC Davis W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 143   UC Riverside L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 15, 2022 110   UC Irvine L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 17, 2022 161   Hawaii L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 24, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 170   Cal St. Fullerton L 70-72 45%    
  Mar 03, 2022 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-67 36%    
  Mar 05, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.4 3.8 1.1 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.9 2.0 0.2 12.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 7.3 3.1 0.2 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 8.0 4.0 0.3 0.0 15.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.6 4.7 0.6 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.7 0.9 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.9 0.9 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 4.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 11th
Total 0.2 0.8 3.0 6.4 11.2 15.3 17.5 16.4 13.2 8.3 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-6 89.2% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 58.0% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 21.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-9 3.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.2% 0.2
14-6 0.7% 0.7
13-7 2.1% 2.1
12-8 4.6% 4.6
11-9 8.3% 8.3
10-10 13.2% 13.2
9-11 16.4% 16.4
8-12 17.5% 17.5
7-13 15.3% 15.3
6-14 11.2% 11.2
5-15 6.4% 6.4
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%