Hawaii
Big West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#161
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#199
Pace65.4#279
Improvement+3.5#43

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#132
First Shot+1.6#125
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#202
Layup/Dunks+0.4#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#89
Freethrows+0.6#129
Improvement+1.1#110

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#210
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#177
Layups/Dunks-4.7#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
Freethrows+0.6#146
Improvement+2.5#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 15.7% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 73.8% 85.0% 61.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 89.9% 69.7%
Conference Champion 28.5% 38.5% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.6% 1.1% 2.2%
First Round12.9% 15.2% 10.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 410 - 414 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 209   Northern Colorado L 78-81 68%     0 - 1 -7.7 -3.3 -4.4
  Nov 13, 2021 260   Pacific W 73-61 77%     1 - 1 +4.3 -1.0 +5.4
  Nov 25, 2021 257   Illinois-Chicago W 88-80 69%     2 - 1 +3.0 +15.9 -12.6
  Nov 26, 2021 149   South Alabama L 69-72 47%     2 - 2 -2.2 -1.7 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara L 58-70 22%     2 - 3 -3.6 -12.1 +8.5
  Dec 22, 2021 85   Vanderbilt L 54-68 35%     2 - 4 -9.8 -12.9 +2.5
  Dec 23, 2021 191   South Florida L 69-76 65%     2 - 5 -10.8 +0.7 -11.7
  Jan 08, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. W 72-67 57%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +3.3 +3.8 -0.1
  Jan 13, 2022 110   UC Irvine W 72-56 44%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +17.8 +9.1 +9.9
  Jan 15, 2022 247   UC San Diego W 79-56 76%     5 - 5 3 - 0 +15.9 +6.4 +10.5
  Jan 20, 2022 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 28, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 30, 2022 176   UC Santa Barbara W 70-67 64%    
  Feb 03, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 11, 2022 239   Long Beach St. W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 13, 2022 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 17, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 110   @ UC Irvine L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 25, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 70-59 85%    
  Feb 27, 2022 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-62 72%    
  Mar 04, 2022 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-70 42%    
  Mar 05, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-63 68%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.1 8.4 8.1 5.0 1.8 0.3 28.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.2 9.0 5.6 1.7 0.2 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.9 7.9 4.0 0.8 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.1 2.9 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.4 2.3 1.9 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.2 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.7 9.9 14.1 16.8 17.3 14.8 9.8 5.2 1.8 0.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-4 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
15-5 95.8% 5.0    4.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 82.5% 8.1    5.7 2.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 56.7% 8.4    3.7 3.7 1.0 0.0
12-8 23.9% 4.1    0.8 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
11-9 3.9% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 28.5% 28.5 16.8 8.5 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.3% 30.1% 30.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.8% 34.9% 34.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2
15-5 5.2% 27.9% 27.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.8
14-6 9.8% 23.8% 23.8% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 7.5
13-7 14.8% 19.3% 19.3% 14.9 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.4 12.0
12-8 17.3% 12.8% 12.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.8 15.1
11-9 16.8% 10.1% 10.1% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.9 15.1
10-10 14.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.7 0.3 0.9 13.0
9-11 9.9% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.2
8-12 5.7% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.3 5.4
7-13 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-14 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.4 4.2 86.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.7 4.0 24.0 60.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%