UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#176
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#293
Pace65.5#276
Improvement-3.3#310

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#156
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks+6.6#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#349
Freethrows+2.4#29
Improvement-3.1#334

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#214
First Shot-2.1#251
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#122
Layups/Dunks-5.9#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#108
Freethrows-0.5#235
Improvement-0.3#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 11.1% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 51.4% 64.8% 35.5%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 38.4% 13.7%
Conference Champion 3.0% 5.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 3.0% 10.6%
First Four3.5% 3.4% 3.5%
First Round8.0% 10.0% 5.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 411 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 52   @ Washington St. L 65-73 13%     0 - 1 +3.7 +2.8 +0.6
  Nov 20, 2021 350   Chicago St. W 81-50 93%     1 - 1 +14.0 +3.0 +11.7
  Nov 24, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-58 96%     2 - 1 +6.4 +2.5 +4.1
  Nov 29, 2021 220   Texas Arlington L 62-70 68%     2 - 2 -13.3 -11.8 -1.4
  Dec 03, 2021 253   Pepperdine W 86-74 74%     3 - 2 +4.6 +11.6 -6.9
  Dec 11, 2021 38   @ St. Mary's L 59-80 10%     3 - 3 -7.8 +0.0 -9.0
  Dec 14, 2021 260   @ Pacific L 71-80 OT 58%     3 - 4 -11.7 -1.9 -9.7
  Dec 19, 2021 320   Florida A&M W 73-62 87%     4 - 4 -1.6 -4.7 +3.0
  Dec 22, 2021 336   Idaho St. W 56-43 89%     5 - 4 -1.1 -10.2 +11.7
  Dec 30, 2021 247   @ UC San Diego L 83-85 OT 56%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -4.1 +0.9 -4.7
  Jan 13, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. L 58-65 54%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -8.7 -11.6 +2.5
  Jan 15, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 73-79 39%     5 - 7 0 - 3 -3.8 -1.5 -2.1
  Jan 20, 2022 143   UC Riverside W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 22, 2022 208   UC Davis W 73-69 67%    
  Jan 25, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 30, 2022 161   @ Hawaii L 67-70 36%    
  Feb 03, 2022 110   UC Irvine L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 247   UC San Diego W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 10, 2022 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 17, 2022 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 239   Long Beach St. W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 24, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 62-66 33%    
  Mar 01, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 71-61 82%    
  Mar 04, 2022 161   Hawaii W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.5 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.3 3.7 5.7 1.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 7.3 2.6 0.2 13.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 7.8 4.2 0.2 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.8 4.8 0.5 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 5.0 4.4 0.7 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 2.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 7.1 11.4 15.1 17.1 16.1 12.6 8.6 4.2 1.4 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 97.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 72.7% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
12-8 32.3% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-9 4.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 39.7% 39.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 1.4% 26.8% 26.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0
12-8 4.2% 24.4% 24.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 3.2
11-9 8.6% 17.7% 17.7% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 7.1
10-10 12.6% 14.3% 14.3% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 10.8
9-11 16.1% 10.1% 10.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 14.5
8-12 17.1% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.1 1.4 15.7
7-13 15.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.9 14.2
6-14 11.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 11.1
5-15 7.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.9
4-16 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.2 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.4 10.4 37.5 52.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%