Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#170
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#165
Pace68.1#189
Improvement+0.7#147

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#137
First Shot+4.0#63
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#330
Layup/Dunks+3.2#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#322
Freethrows+5.0#1
Improvement-0.5#207

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#217
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#313
Layups/Dunks+2.9#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#300
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement+1.2#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 16.2% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 74.2% 89.6% 69.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.6% 85.8% 61.9%
Conference Champion 18.0% 34.2% 12.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round11.6% 15.9% 10.2%
Second Round0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 45 - 9
Quad 410 - 415 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara L 77-84 21%     0 - 1 +1.4 +10.8 -9.8
  Nov 11, 2021 287   @ San Jose St. L 76-78 67%     0 - 2 -6.7 +3.6 -10.5
  Nov 16, 2021 271   George Washington W 74-59 79%     1 - 2 +6.4 +2.1 +5.1
  Nov 19, 2021 172   @ San Diego W 57-55 41%     2 - 2 +4.1 -7.3 +11.6
  Nov 23, 2021 276   UT Rio Grande Valley L 67-72 73%     2 - 3 -11.5 -13.4 +2.1
  Nov 24, 2021 319   @ Northern Arizona W 73-56 75%     3 - 3 +9.7 +4.9 +6.9
  Nov 29, 2021 66   Wyoming L 66-79 29%     3 - 4 -7.4 +0.8 -9.4
  Dec 04, 2021 260   Pacific W 66-57 76%     4 - 4 +1.3 -6.9 +8.5
  Dec 08, 2021 33   @ San Diego St. L 56-66 10%     4 - 5 +4.0 -1.7 +5.0
  Dec 30, 2021 228   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-67 52%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +5.1 +2.7 +2.5
  Jan 13, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 79-64 83%     6 - 5 2 - 0 +4.6 +2.7 +1.9
  Jan 15, 2022 176   UC Santa Barbara W 79-73 61%     7 - 5 3 - 0 +2.9 +2.0 +0.8
  Jan 20, 2022 110   @ UC Irvine L 63-70 24%    
  Jan 22, 2022 247   UC San Diego W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 29, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 03, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 71-61 84%    
  Feb 05, 2022 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 08, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 13, 2022 161   @ Hawaii L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 17, 2022 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 24, 2022 110   UC Irvine L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 03, 2022 143   UC Riverside W 66-65 55%    
  Mar 05, 2022 208   UC Davis W 75-71 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.9 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 7.2 3.7 0.7 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.7 8.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.7 8.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 6.4 2.9 0.2 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.5 9.6 13.9 16.7 17.4 14.7 10.1 5.3 2.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-5 97.9% 2.5    2.3 0.2
14-6 86.2% 4.5    3.4 1.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 58.7% 5.9    2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0
12-8 23.9% 3.5    0.8 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-9 3.9% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 18.0% 18.0 10.1 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 47.2% 47.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 30.7% 30.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 2.6% 29.3% 29.3% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-6 5.3% 24.2% 24.2% 14.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.0
13-7 10.1% 20.6% 20.6% 14.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 8.0
12-8 14.7% 15.9% 15.9% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 12.4
11-9 17.4% 12.9% 12.9% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 15.1
10-10 16.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 15.3
9-11 13.9% 6.6% 6.6% 15.6 0.3 0.6 13.0
8-12 9.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.2
7-13 5.5% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.2 5.3
6-14 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.0 2.9 88.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.1 12.0 16.0 24.0 48.0