UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#208
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#185
Pace71.4#104
Improvement-2.6#290

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#191
First Shot-0.6#201
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#170
Layup/Dunks+1.2#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#330
Freethrows+0.9#110
Improvement+2.7#40

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#223
First Shot-0.9#201
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#252
Layups/Dunks+0.6#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
Freethrows-1.0#261
Improvement-5.3#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 7.8% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.4
.500 or above 67.2% 77.9% 51.1%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 39.1% 14.7%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.3% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.0% 10.8%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round5.9% 7.3% 3.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 33 - 44 - 5
Quad 410 - 614 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 73   @ Utah St. W 72-69 13%     1 - 0 +13.0 -2.3 +15.1
  Nov 12, 2021 222   Eastern Washington W 84-76 62%     2 - 0 +2.6 -4.8 +6.3
  Nov 17, 2021 253   @ Pepperdine L 67-72 51%     2 - 1 -7.4 -6.8 -0.5
  Nov 23, 2021 279   Sacramento St. L 63-75 67%     2 - 2 -18.8 -17.9 +0.3
  Dec 01, 2021 260   Pacific W 63-57 71%     3 - 2 -1.7 -5.7 +4.5
  Dec 14, 2021 124   @ Oregon St. W 71-64 24%     4 - 2 +12.4 -2.4 +14.6
  Dec 19, 2021 260   @ Pacific W 77-67 52%     5 - 2 +7.3 +8.3 -0.6
  Dec 22, 2021 245   Portland L 60-65 68%     5 - 3 -12.1 -9.5 -3.2
  Jan 08, 2022 247   UC San Diego W 78-71 68%     6 - 3 1 - 0 -0.1 +11.3 -10.5
  Jan 15, 2022 300   @ Cal Poly L 74-82 63%     6 - 4 1 - 1 -13.6 +1.6 -15.5
  Jan 20, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 176   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-73 33%    
  Jan 27, 2022 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 239   Long Beach St. W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 01, 2022 143   @ UC Riverside L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 05, 2022 161   Hawaii W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 10, 2022 247   @ UC San Diego L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 110   @ UC Irvine L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 17, 2022 300   Cal Poly W 71-63 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 228   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 24, 2022 176   UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 26, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 72-64 78%    
  Mar 03, 2022 239   @ Long Beach St. L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 05, 2022 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 71-75 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.5 4.3 1.1 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.1 2.0 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.6 7.4 2.9 0.3 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 7.4 3.8 0.3 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.1 4.6 0.5 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.8 0.7 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.3 6.9 11.3 14.6 16.7 16.1 13.3 9.2 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 89.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 57.6% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 25.1% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-9 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.5% 27.9% 27.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.8% 18.8% 18.8% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-8 4.5% 16.5% 16.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 3.7
11-9 9.2% 13.3% 13.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 7.9
10-10 13.3% 9.3% 9.3% 15.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 12.1
9-11 16.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 14.9
8-12 16.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 15.8
7-13 14.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 14.2
6-14 11.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.1
5-15 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.9
4-16 3.3% 3.3
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.7 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%