Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
33 San Diego St. 66.2%   10   10 - 3 2 - 0 19 - 6 11 - 3 +11.5      +1.3 136 +10.2 4 64.4 304 +12.7 37 +22.4 1
47 Colorado St. 78.9%   10   13 - 1 4 - 1 20 - 5 11 - 5 +10.0      +8.2 19 +1.8 118 69.0 168 +18.2 9 +11.1 5
54 Boise St. 34.3%   12 - 4 4 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 5 +9.1      +1.9 119 +7.2 20 66.8 237 +8.4 70 +18.3 3
66 Wyoming 43.3%   13 - 2 3 - 0 21 - 6 11 - 4 +8.1      +5.3 46 +2.8 93 66.2 259 +15.7 20 +21.9 2
73 Utah St. 14.0%   9 - 8 1 - 4 16 - 13 8 - 9 +7.5      +4.1 69 +3.4 82 69.2 161 +4.7 104 -3.0 9
78 Fresno St. 13.9%   12 - 4 3 - 1 19 - 8 10 - 5 +7.2      +1.8 123 +5.4 48 58.5 352 +9.0 66 +12.0 4
108 UNLV 4.1%   9 - 7 2 - 2 16 - 14 9 - 9 +4.3      +1.8 121 +2.5 97 67.5 213 +3.8 115 +0.9 7
116 Nevada 2.6%   7 - 7 2 - 2 12 - 14 7 - 9 +3.6      +2.3 109 +1.4 131 76.9 25 +2.5 133 +1.4 6
193 New Mexico 0.2%   6 - 11 0 - 5 10 - 18 4 - 12 -1.4      +1.1 148 -2.5 247 76.0 34 -1.7 196 -8.3 10
244 Air Force 0.0%   8 - 7 1 - 3 11 - 17 4 - 13 -4.5      -4.8 305 +0.3 162 59.1 348 -0.7 183 +0.6 8
287 San Jose St. 0.0%   6 - 9 0 - 4 8 - 19 2 - 14 -7.2      -2.2 234 -5.0 318 67.0 232 -2.2 205 -9.2 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 3.1 21.7 22.1 18.9 15.2 10.9 6.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 2.7 34.3 20.9 16.0 11.5 8.5 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.1
Boise St. 2.7 35.6 20.4 15.3 11.9 8.1 5.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 2.9 27.9 22.1 17.4 13.6 9.7 5.6 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 5.8 2.2 4.5 7.0 10.8 15.0 20.8 22.6 12.3 3.9 0.9 0.1
Fresno St. 4.0 10.0 14.6 17.0 17.3 18.0 12.9 7.1 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
UNLV 5.3 5.6 7.5 9.3 11.4 15.4 18.7 18.4 9.6 3.6 0.6 0.0
Nevada 7.0 0.7 1.7 2.7 4.5 8.0 12.7 19.7 33.2 13.7 2.8 0.3
New Mexico 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.9 16.7 32.7 32.2 11.3
Air Force 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 6.1 17.6 32.5 30.0 10.2
San Jose St. 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.2 11.0 24.7 60.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 6.5 12.8 20.4 23.9 19.8 10.8 2.9
Colorado St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.8 9.6 16.5 21.1 20.6 15.7 7.3 1.9
Boise St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.6 9.8 16.5 20.8 20.2 14.7 8.3 2.8 0.5
Wyoming 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.5 11.2 18.2 22.2 20.4 13.2 5.5 1.2
Utah St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.1 10.7 17.5 21.9 19.7 13.7 6.6 2.1 0.4
Fresno St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.2 13.0 19.6 22.6 19.2 11.7 4.3 0.7
UNLV 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 9.2 14.9 18.5 19.2 15.0 10.0 5.5 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Nevada 7 - 11 0.4 2.8 8.6 16.6 20.1 19.2 15.3 9.6 4.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 4 - 14 0.6 3.8 11.8 20.3 24.8 20.0 12.0 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 14 2.8 10.3 21.0 23.5 19.6 13.2 6.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 2 - 16 10.9 24.8 28.0 20.3 10.5 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 21.7% 10.1 7.4 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 34.3% 19.5 10.1 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 35.6% 20.6 10.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 27.9% 14.2 9.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 2.2% 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 10.0% 3.7 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 5.6% 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nevada 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
New Mexico
Air Force 0.0% 0.0
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 66.2% 27.0% 39.1% 10   0.3 0.8 1.4 3.1 3.6 4.6 6.4 7.9 10.6 11.4 11.3 4.6 0.2 33.8 53.6%
Colorado St. 78.9% 19.5% 59.4% 10   0.3 0.7 1.4 3.3 4.5 6.8 8.4 8.7 13.0 12.7 13.7 5.4 0.2 21.1 73.8%
Boise St. 34.3% 17.1% 17.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.0 6.8 9.2 5.5 0.5 0.0 65.7 20.8%
Wyoming 43.3% 12.4% 30.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.7 6.4 7.8 11.3 7.1 0.4 0.0 56.7 35.3%
Utah St. 14.0% 8.4% 5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 4.8 4.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 86.0 6.0%
Fresno St. 13.9% 9.2% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 3.7 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 86.1 5.2%
UNLV 4.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 95.9 0.4%
Nevada 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 97.4 0.2%
New Mexico 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 66.2% 8.1% 62.1% 33.9% 11.8% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
Colorado St. 78.9% 11.5% 72.5% 34.6% 10.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 34.3% 5.8% 31.6% 13.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Wyoming 43.3% 11.5% 36.8% 14.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah St. 14.0% 3.0% 12.3% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 13.9% 2.6% 12.5% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 4.1% 0.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 2.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.6 7.7 39.6 40.9 11.1 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 2.3 12.8 46.7 34.1 6.1 0.3
2nd Round 74.8% 1.1 25.2 47.6 23.4 3.6 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 28.9% 0.3 71.1 26.1 2.7 0.1
Elite Eight 10.2% 0.1 89.8 9.9 0.3 0.0
Final Four 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3 0.0
Final Game 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3