Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#73
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#104
Pace69.2#161
Improvement-3.8#327

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#69
First Shot+5.6#35
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#290
Layup/Dunks+3.5#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#85
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement-3.9#348

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#82
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#38
Layups/Dunks+5.7#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#324
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement+0.2#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 18.0% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.0% 8.8% 2.7%
Average Seed 10.9 10.7 11.5
.500 or above 84.4% 92.5% 74.1%
.500 or above in Conference 42.5% 55.8% 25.8%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four3.0% 4.0% 1.6%
First Round12.3% 15.8% 7.9%
Second Round4.1% 5.6% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 7
Quad 24 - 46 - 10
Quad 35 - 211 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 208   UC Davis L 69-72 87%     0 - 1 -7.7 -12.6 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2021 99   Richmond W 85-74 57%     1 - 1 +16.7 +19.8 -2.2
  Nov 18, 2021 211   Penn W 87-79 2OT 82%     2 - 1 +5.7 -0.2 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2021 93   New Mexico St. W 85-58 55%     3 - 1 +33.2 +22.8 +13.1
  Nov 21, 2021 30   Oklahoma W 73-70 33%     4 - 1 +15.0 +7.2 +7.9
  Nov 27, 2021 220   Texas Arlington W 80-61 88%     5 - 1 +13.7 +7.4 +6.4
  Dec 02, 2021 38   St. Mary's L 58-60 47%     5 - 2 +6.2 -2.4 +8.5
  Dec 08, 2021 29   @ BYU L 71-82 25%     5 - 3 +3.7 +4.3 -0.3
  Dec 11, 2021 281   New Orleans W 82-50 93%     6 - 3 +22.5 +2.8 +18.9
  Dec 15, 2021 147   @ Weber St. W 95-80 65%     7 - 3 +18.5 +17.8 -0.2
  Dec 18, 2021 21   Iowa L 75-94 29%     7 - 4 -5.8 +0.9 -5.8
  Dec 21, 2021 274   Portland St. W 81-62 93%     8 - 4 +10.1 +6.1 +4.0
  Dec 29, 2021 244   @ Air Force L 47-49 81%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -4.0 -16.8 +12.5
  Jan 08, 2022 193   @ New Mexico W 90-87 OT 73%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +4.1 +4.3 -0.5
  Jan 12, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 72-77 31%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +7.5 +5.5 +1.8
  Jan 15, 2022 66   Wyoming L 69-71 57%     9 - 7 1 - 3 +3.6 +1.3 +2.2
  Jan 18, 2022 78   @ Fresno St. L 54-61 41%     9 - 8 1 - 4 +2.7 -6.4 +8.4
  Jan 20, 2022 54   Boise St. W 67-66 56%    
  Jan 26, 2022 33   San Diego St. L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 29, 2022 116   @ Nevada W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 01, 2022 244   Air Force W 70-55 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 108   UNLV W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 08, 2022 66   @ Wyoming L 69-72 37%    
  Feb 11, 2022 116   Nevada W 78-72 74%    
  Feb 15, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 54   @ Boise St. L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 22, 2022 193   New Mexico W 81-70 86%    
  Feb 26, 2022 47   Colorado St. W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 04, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 77-65 86%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.3 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.9 0.8 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.1 2.5 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.9 6.2 0.5 10.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 8.9 2.5 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.3 3.5 10.9 5.9 0.2 20.8 6th
7th 0.5 4.3 10.3 6.9 0.6 22.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.3 3.4 0.4 12.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.1 10.7 17.5 21.9 19.7 13.7 6.6 2.1 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 92.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1
12-6 56.4% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-7 9.8% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 94.5% 38.3% 56.3% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.2%
12-6 2.1% 72.6% 22.0% 50.6% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.6 64.9%
11-7 6.6% 45.5% 16.9% 28.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.4 3.6 34.5%
10-8 13.7% 27.1% 14.6% 12.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.1 0.0 10.0 14.7%
9-9 19.7% 12.0% 9.2% 2.8% 11.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.0 17.4 3.1%
8-10 21.9% 7.6% 7.1% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 20.2 0.5%
7-11 17.5% 5.0% 4.9% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 16.6 0.0%
6-12 10.7% 3.2% 3.2% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.3
5-13 5.1% 2.3% 2.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
4-14 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.0% 8.4% 5.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 4.8 4.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 86.0 6.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 20.0 45.7 22.9 8.6 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 91.7% 7.6 16.7 22.2 19.4 27.8 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 8.0 28.9 50.0 15.8 5.3