Nevada
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#116
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#133
Pace76.9#25
Improvement-0.8#212

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#109
First Shot+1.6#131
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#125
Layup/Dunks-3.1#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#160
Freethrows+1.5#74
Improvement-2.6#319

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#131
First Shot+1.6#124
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#191
Layups/Dunks+4.0#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#265
Freethrows+1.1#97
Improvement+1.8#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.2 12.9
.500 or above 30.5% 44.0% 18.2%
.500 or above in Conference 17.0% 26.7% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.3% 2.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round2.5% 3.2% 2.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 22 - 63 - 12
Quad 35 - 28 - 15
Quad 44 - 113 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 222   Eastern Washington W 91-76 80%     1 - 0 +9.6 +6.2 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2021 172   San Diego L 68-75 73%     1 - 1 -9.9 -1.9 -8.2
  Nov 16, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara L 74-96 32%     1 - 2 -13.6 -3.3 -8.2
  Nov 18, 2021 39   @ San Francisco L 70-73 18%     1 - 3 +10.1 +6.7 +3.4
  Nov 22, 2021 98   South Dakota St. L 75-102 42%     1 - 4 -21.2 -11.2 -6.4
  Nov 23, 2021 123   George Mason W 88-69 53%     2 - 4 +21.9 +12.4 +8.7
  Nov 24, 2021 130   Washington W 81-62 55%     3 - 4 +21.4 +7.5 +12.8
  Nov 30, 2021 253   Pepperdine W 79-66 85%     4 - 4 +5.6 -3.5 +7.9
  Dec 18, 2021 131   Loyola Marymount W 68-63 64%     5 - 4 +4.8 -6.6 +11.4
  Dec 29, 2021 7   @ Kansas L 61-88 7%     5 - 5 -6.6 -9.5 +5.4
  Jan 01, 2022 193   New Mexico W 79-70 76%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +5.1 -3.4 +7.8
  Jan 12, 2022 54   Boise St. L 70-85 39%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -8.4 -1.6 -5.8
  Jan 15, 2022 244   @ Air Force W 75-68 71%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +5.0 +7.7 -2.3
  Jan 17, 2022 66   Wyoming L 67-77 42%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -4.4 -8.3 +4.5
  Jan 21, 2022 78   Fresno St. L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 25, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 73-82 19%    
  Jan 29, 2022 73   Utah St. L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 01, 2022 108   @ UNLV L 72-75 36%    
  Feb 04, 2022 78   @ Fresno St. L 63-69 27%    
  Feb 08, 2022 47   Colorado St. L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 11, 2022 73   @ Utah St. L 72-78 26%    
  Feb 16, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 81-68 90%    
  Feb 22, 2022 108   UNLV W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 66   @ Wyoming L 71-78 24%    
  Mar 01, 2022 54   @ Boise St. L 66-74 23%    
  Mar 05, 2022 33   San Diego St. L 65-70 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 2.0 0.1 4.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 4.7 0.6 8.0 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 7.2 2.1 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.9 9.3 4.7 0.2 19.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 10.3 13.1 6.4 0.6 33.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 4.7 5.5 1.8 0.2 13.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.4 2.8 8.6 16.6 20.1 19.2 15.3 9.6 4.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 81.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 60.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 11.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 53.1% 53.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.1%
12-6 0.6% 33.9% 16.3% 17.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 21.0%
11-7 1.9% 16.2% 12.1% 4.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6 4.6%
10-8 4.9% 6.8% 6.7% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 0.1%
9-9 9.6% 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.1%
8-10 15.3% 3.2% 3.2% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 14.8
7-11 19.2% 2.1% 2.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 18.8
6-12 20.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.9
5-13 16.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 16.5
4-14 8.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 97.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%