New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#193
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#196
Pace76.0#34
Improvement-2.1#266

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#148
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#217
Layup/Dunks-2.4#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#139
Freethrows+1.2#89
Improvement-2.5#315

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#247
First Shot-1.9#248
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#224
Layups/Dunks-3.6#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#47
Freethrows-2.7#320
Improvement+0.5#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 1.5% 6.1% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 1.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 9.2% 23.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 12.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 21 - 72 - 12
Quad 32 - 54 - 17
Quad 47 - 110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 151   Florida Atlantic W 99-92 52%     1 - 0 +5.2 +13.6 -9.0
  Nov 13, 2021 69   @ Colorado L 76-87 14%     1 - 1 -0.7 +2.5 -2.3
  Nov 15, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 86-61 86%     2 - 1 +12.2 -2.0 +11.5
  Nov 20, 2021 166   Montana St. W 81-78 55%     3 - 1 +0.4 +4.4 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2021 50   UAB L 73-86 16%     3 - 2 -3.5 -0.6 -2.0
  Nov 26, 2021 114   Towson L 58-73 30%     3 - 3 -10.9 -10.1 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2021 93   @ New Mexico St. W 101-94 17%     4 - 3 +15.7 +18.5 -3.7
  Dec 06, 2021 93   New Mexico St. L 76-78 OT 31%     4 - 4 +1.7 -7.7 +9.7
  Dec 09, 2021 317   Denver W 87-67 84%     5 - 4 +8.1 +7.0 +0.9
  Dec 12, 2021 168   UTEP L 69-77 55%     5 - 5 -10.6 -5.6 -4.6
  Dec 19, 2021 63   SMU L 72-90 25%     5 - 6 -12.3 -2.0 -9.8
  Dec 21, 2021 231   Norfolk St. W 68-54 68%     6 - 6 +7.9 -3.9 +12.1
  Jan 01, 2022 116   @ Nevada L 70-79 24%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -2.9 -5.4 +3.2
  Jan 08, 2022 73   Utah St. L 87-90 OT 27%     6 - 8 0 - 2 +2.0 +5.0 -2.6
  Jan 11, 2022 108   @ UNLV L 56-85 22%     6 - 9 0 - 3 -22.2 -17.0 -3.0
  Jan 15, 2022 54   Boise St. L 63-71 22%     6 - 10 0 - 4 -1.4 +0.1 -2.1
  Jan 19, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 74-80 10%     6 - 11 0 - 5 +6.5 +10.4 -4.4
  Jan 22, 2022 66   @ Wyoming L 69-81 12%    
  Jan 25, 2022 78   Fresno St. L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 28, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 80-72 80%    
  Jan 31, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 61-76 7%    
  Feb 05, 2022 244   @ Air Force W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 15, 2022 66   Wyoming L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 19, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 22, 2022 73   @ Utah St. L 70-81 14%    
  Feb 26, 2022 244   Air Force W 70-64 71%    
  Mar 01, 2022 78   @ Fresno St. L 62-73 15%    
  Mar 05, 2022 108   UNLV L 73-76 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.2 0.3 4.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 6.3 6.4 1.7 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.0 4.2 13.4 11.5 3.3 0.2 0.0 32.7 9th
10th 0.3 6.4 14.3 9.1 2.0 0.1 32.2 10th
11th 0.6 3.5 5.4 1.7 0.2 11.3 11th
Total 0.6 3.8 11.8 20.3 24.8 20.0 12.0 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 4.9
6-12 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 12.0
5-13 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 20.0
4-14 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.8
3-15 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.3
2-16 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.8
1-17 3.8% 3.8
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%