UNLV
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#108
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#115
Pace67.5#213
Improvement+5.5#9

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#121
First Shot+2.7#96
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#255
Layup/Dunks-2.8#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#87
Freethrows+1.0#101
Improvement+3.0#33

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#97
First Shot+2.2#107
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#150
Layups/Dunks+3.2#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#237
Freethrows+0.4#164
Improvement+2.5#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.7% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 13.2
.500 or above 66.1% 74.4% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 60.9% 30.9%
Conference Champion 5.6% 7.2% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round3.9% 4.5% 2.6%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 7
Quad 22 - 53 - 13
Quad 35 - 28 - 15
Quad 48 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 223   Gardner-Webb W 64-58 82%     1 - 0 +0.6 -10.9 +11.4
  Nov 13, 2021 107   California W 55-52 60%     2 - 0 +4.9 -7.7 +12.9
  Nov 15, 2021 188   North Dakota St. W 64-62 78%     3 - 0 -1.6 -7.4 +5.8
  Nov 19, 2021 24   Michigan L 61-74 21%     3 - 1 -0.2 -3.0 +2.0
  Nov 21, 2021 87   Wichita St. L 73-74 41%     3 - 2 +5.6 +5.3 +0.3
  Nov 27, 2021 12   UCLA L 51-73 18%     3 - 3 -7.8 -8.1 -2.9
  Dec 01, 2021 63   @ SMU L 64-83 27%     3 - 4 -8.3 -4.2 -4.5
  Dec 04, 2021 39   @ San Francisco L 62-83 20%     3 - 5 -7.9 -3.4 -4.5
  Dec 08, 2021 160   Seattle W 76-56 66%     4 - 5 +20.2 +8.1 +13.1
  Dec 11, 2021 278   Hartford W 95-78 85%     5 - 5 +10.3 +16.4 -6.3
  Dec 15, 2021 338   Nebraska Omaha W 84-71 95%     6 - 5 -1.5 +1.3 -2.9
  Dec 22, 2021 172   San Diego W 80-57 76%     7 - 5 +20.1 +11.3 +9.6
  Jan 01, 2022 33   San Diego St. L 55-62 33%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +2.0 -7.7 +9.5
  Jan 11, 2022 193   New Mexico W 85-56 78%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +25.1 +2.4 +20.7
  Jan 14, 2022 78   Fresno St. L 68-73 49%     8 - 7 1 - 2 -0.3 +0.1 -0.4
  Jan 17, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 81-56 80%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +20.3 +7.7 +13.6
  Jan 20, 2022 244   @ Air Force W 65-59 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 76-62 91%    
  Jan 24, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 58-68 17%    
  Jan 28, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 68-76 21%    
  Feb 01, 2022 116   Nevada W 75-72 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 73   @ Utah St. L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 08, 2022 244   Air Force W 67-56 86%    
  Feb 11, 2022 54   @ Boise St. L 62-69 24%    
  Feb 16, 2022 78   @ Fresno St. L 59-64 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 47   Colorado St. L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 22, 2022 116   @ Nevada L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 54   Boise St. L 64-66 44%    
  Mar 02, 2022 66   Wyoming L 68-69 47%    
  Mar 05, 2022 193   @ New Mexico W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.7 3.9 2.6 0.2 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.4 4.1 0.5 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 3.7 6.5 1.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 8.9 3.2 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 9.4 5.7 0.2 18.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.5 8.5 5.5 0.6 18.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 9.2 14.9 18.5 19.2 15.0 10.0 5.5 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
14-4 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.1
13-5 86.1% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 44.1% 2.4    0.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 8.6% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 69.3% 25.3% 44.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.9%
14-4 0.5% 34.8% 13.2% 21.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 24.9%
13-5 1.8% 18.3% 13.6% 4.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 5.5%
12-6 5.5% 10.5% 9.4% 1.1% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 1.2%
11-7 10.0% 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 9.3 0.1%
10-8 15.0% 5.3% 5.3% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 14.2
9-9 19.2% 3.6% 3.6% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 18.5
8-10 18.5% 1.9% 1.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 18.2
7-11 14.9% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.6
6-12 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 9.1
5-13 3.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 3.7% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 95.9 0.4%