Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#244
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#183
Pace59.1#348
Improvement+1.5#105

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#305
First Shot-2.6#263
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#322
Layup/Dunks+0.6#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#68
Freethrows-3.4#348
Improvement+0.7#133

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#162
First Shot+1.2#140
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#255
Layups/Dunks-0.5#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#73
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement+0.8#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 6.2% 13.7% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 2.5% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.4% 9.5% 24.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 52 - 9
Quad 32 - 64 - 16
Quad 48 - 212 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 234   South Dakota L 53-59 48%     0 - 1 -10.0 -19.8 +9.4
  Nov 13, 2021 121   @ Tulsa W 59-58 18%     1 - 1 +6.4 -2.7 +9.2
  Nov 17, 2021 204   Texas Southern W 61-57 50%     2 - 1 -0.4 -6.1 +6.1
  Nov 20, 2021 344   Holy Cross W 72-53 79%     3 - 1 +5.9 -2.7 +10.1
  Nov 21, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 73-65 82%     4 - 1 -6.0 +4.3 -9.4
  Nov 24, 2021 317   Denver W 66-65 76%     5 - 1 -10.9 -6.4 -4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 336   Idaho St. W 59-48 82%     6 - 1 -3.1 -10.1 +8.5
  Dec 04, 2021 266   Army W 76-58 63%     7 - 1 +10.0 -2.6 +12.1
  Dec 08, 2021 178   @ Montana L 48-66 27%     7 - 2 -16.1 -19.2 +1.3
  Dec 19, 2021 194   @ Arkansas St. L 46-68 29%     7 - 3 -20.9 -22.4 -0.8
  Dec 21, 2021 171   @ Tarleton St. L 45-67 26%     7 - 4 -19.9 -14.6 -10.1
  Dec 29, 2021 73   Utah St. W 49-47 19%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +7.0 -13.9 +21.2
  Jan 04, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 59-67 7%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.5 -0.3 +3.3
  Jan 15, 2022 116   Nevada L 68-75 29%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -5.9 -1.1 -5.1
  Jan 18, 2022 54   @ Boise St. L 56-62 8%     8 - 7 1 - 3 +5.6 -1.0 +5.8
  Jan 20, 2022 108   UNLV L 59-65 29%    
  Jan 22, 2022 47   Colorado St. L 59-71 13%    
  Jan 25, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 63-62 49%    
  Jan 28, 2022 66   Wyoming L 57-67 18%    
  Feb 01, 2022 73   @ Utah St. L 55-70 8%    
  Feb 05, 2022 193   New Mexico L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 08, 2022 108   @ UNLV L 56-67 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 48-66 4%    
  Feb 15, 2022 54   Boise St. L 54-65 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 66   @ Wyoming L 55-70 7%    
  Feb 22, 2022 78   Fresno St. L 52-61 21%    
  Feb 26, 2022 193   @ New Mexico L 64-70 29%    
  Mar 01, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 65-60 70%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 4 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.7 0.8 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 6.0 7.0 2.4 0.2 17.6 8th
9th 4.2 12.9 11.6 3.6 0.3 0.0 32.5 9th
10th 4.9 14.7 8.6 1.6 0.2 30.0 10th
11th 2.8 5.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 10.2 11th
Total 2.8 10.3 21.0 23.5 19.6 13.2 6.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.7% 0.7
8-10 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-11 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 13.2% 13.2
5-13 19.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.6
4-14 23.5% 23.5
3-15 21.0% 21.0
2-16 10.3% 10.3
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.5%