Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#78
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#66
Pace58.5#352
Improvement+2.8#61

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#123
First Shot+0.4#161
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#79
Layup/Dunks-0.8#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows+1.7#66
Improvement+1.4#86

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#48
First Shot+4.2#56
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#71
Layups/Dunks+3.7#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#218
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows+1.4#85
Improvement+1.4#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 17.7% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.2% 7.8% 2.5%
Average Seed 10.9 10.6 11.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 88.5% 66.6%
Conference Champion 10.0% 14.6% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 3.7% 1.5%
First Round12.5% 15.7% 9.0%
Second Round4.1% 5.4% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 37 - 211 - 9
Quad 49 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 235   LIU Brooklyn W 84-60 89%     1 - 0 +17.5 +2.6 +13.2
  Nov 15, 2021 325   Idaho W 69-62 96%     2 - 0 -6.2 -8.7 +3.0
  Nov 22, 2021 253   Pepperdine W 70-63 87%     3 - 0 +2.1 +1.9 +0.8
  Nov 24, 2021 95   Santa Clara W 59-52 55%     4 - 0 +12.9 -4.0 +17.9
  Nov 28, 2021 107   @ California L 57-65 51%     4 - 1 -1.1 -5.0 +3.2
  Dec 01, 2021 172   San Diego W 63-43 83%     5 - 1 +17.1 +4.2 +17.0
  Dec 04, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 61-43 94%     6 - 1 +7.6 -4.4 +15.3
  Dec 08, 2021 39   @ San Francisco L 63-71 28%     6 - 2 +5.1 +3.3 +1.1
  Dec 11, 2021 110   UC Irvine W 63-55 70%     7 - 2 +9.8 -1.8 +12.0
  Dec 17, 2021 300   Cal Poly W 83-48 94%     8 - 2 +24.4 +18.3 +11.3
  Dec 21, 2021 111   @ Utah L 50-55 52%     8 - 3 +1.7 -9.6 +10.2
  Dec 23, 2021 147   @ Weber St. W 69-43 64%     9 - 3 +29.5 +7.4 +25.9
  Dec 28, 2021 54   @ Boise St. L 55-65 34%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +1.6 +0.5 -0.7
  Jan 11, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 79-59 93%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +10.3 +13.6 +0.1
  Jan 14, 2022 108   @ UNLV W 73-68 51%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +11.8 +4.7 +7.2
  Jan 18, 2022 73   Utah St. W 61-54 59%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +12.0 -3.2 +16.0
  Jan 21, 2022 116   @ Nevada W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 25, 2022 193   @ New Mexico W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 28, 2022 54   Boise St. W 60-59 54%    
  Feb 01, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 69-57 86%    
  Feb 04, 2022 116   Nevada W 69-63 73%    
  Feb 11, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 63-68 29%    
  Feb 16, 2022 108   UNLV W 64-59 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 33   San Diego St. L 56-58 46%    
  Feb 22, 2022 244   @ Air Force W 61-52 79%    
  Mar 01, 2022 193   New Mexico W 73-62 85%    
  Mar 05, 2022 66   @ Wyoming L 61-64 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 10 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 4.6 3.5 0.7 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 6.9 5.8 0.8 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 6.8 8.4 1.3 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.2 4.5 10.0 2.5 0.0 17.3 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 10.0 4.4 0.2 18.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.6 4.2 0.3 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.7 0.3 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.2 13.0 19.6 22.6 19.2 11.7 4.3 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 99.1% 0.7    0.6 0.0
13-5 81.8% 3.5    2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 39.4% 4.6    0.9 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 6.4% 1.2    0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 3.7 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.7% 86.3% 25.0% 61.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 81.7%
13-5 4.3% 56.0% 21.6% 34.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 43.9%
12-6 11.7% 30.1% 15.1% 15.0% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.1 8.2 17.7%
11-7 19.2% 17.1% 12.5% 4.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.2 15.9 5.2%
10-8 22.6% 9.6% 8.7% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.2 20.4 0.9%
9-9 19.6% 6.7% 6.5% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 18.3 0.2%
8-10 13.0% 3.5% 3.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.5
7-11 6.2% 3.1% 3.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0
6-12 2.2% 0.8% 0.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.9% 9.2% 4.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 3.7 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 86.1 5.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.1 1.2 25.6 46.3 11.0 15.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 90.7% 7.2 12.0 18.7 20.0 25.3 8.0 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 83.9% 8.3 5.1 20.3 22.9 18.6 13.6 3.4