San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#33
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#37
Pace64.4#304
Improvement+5.9#8

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#136
First Shot-1.1#220
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#31
Layup/Dunks-0.7#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#308
Freethrows+2.0#49
Improvement+1.3#94

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#4
First Shot+11.1#3
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#260
Layups/Dunks+5.1#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#33
Freethrows+2.3#38
Improvement+4.7#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 7.4% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 13.7% 17.8% 4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.2% 72.4% 51.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.6% 60.8% 39.2%
Average Seed 8.5 8.2 9.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 95.2% 79.9%
Conference Champion 21.7% 28.5% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.1% 7.5% 9.6%
First Round62.1% 68.8% 46.9%
Second Round33.9% 38.6% 23.1%
Sweet Sixteen11.8% 13.7% 7.5%
Elite Eight4.4% 5.2% 2.6%
Final Four1.6% 2.0% 0.7%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 5
Quad 25 - 27 - 6
Quad 36 - 013 - 7
Quad 48 - 020 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 143   UC Riverside W 66-53 88%     1 - 0 +11.7 -1.6 +13.7
  Nov 12, 2021 29   @ BYU L 60-66 38%     1 - 1 +8.7 -2.1 +10.5
  Nov 18, 2021 119   Arizona St. W 65-63 84%     2 - 1 +2.9 -1.8 +4.8
  Nov 20, 2021 220   Texas Arlington W 68-62 93%     3 - 1 +0.7 -2.8 +3.8
  Nov 25, 2021 155   Georgetown W 73-56 85%     4 - 1 +17.5 +0.2 +17.6
  Nov 26, 2021 26   USC L 43-58 45%     4 - 2 -2.3 -14.9 +9.4
  Nov 30, 2021 239   Long Beach St. W 72-47 94%     5 - 2 +18.3 -7.5 +24.6
  Dec 04, 2021 24   @ Michigan L 58-72 35%     5 - 3 +1.3 -7.2 +8.2
  Dec 08, 2021 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 66-56 90%     6 - 3 +7.2 -5.3 +13.2
  Dec 17, 2021 38   St. Mary's W 63-53 53%     7 - 3 +20.7 +6.2 +15.6
  Dec 22, 2021 247   UC San Diego W 78-57 95%     8 - 3 +13.9 +6.9 +8.3
  Jan 01, 2022 108   @ UNLV W 62-55 67%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +13.8 -5.6 +19.6
  Jan 08, 2022 47   Colorado St. W 79-49 65%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +37.5 +10.4 +28.5
  Jan 22, 2022 54   Boise St. W 63-58 70%    
  Jan 24, 2022 108   UNLV W 68-58 83%    
  Jan 26, 2022 73   @ Utah St. W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 31, 2022 193   New Mexico W 76-61 93%    
  Feb 04, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 66-67 44%    
  Feb 09, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 72-56 93%    
  Feb 12, 2022 244   Air Force W 66-48 96%    
  Feb 15, 2022 73   Utah St. W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 78   @ Fresno St. W 58-56 54%    
  Feb 22, 2022 54   @ Boise St. L 60-61 48%    
  Feb 25, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 74-53 98%    
  Mar 05, 2022 116   @ Nevada W 70-65 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 6 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 8.2 8.9 2.9 21.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 9.3 9.6 1.9 0.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 6.6 9.9 1.9 0.0 18.9 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 9.0 2.7 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.1 3.3 0.1 10.9 5th
6th 0.5 3.0 2.7 0.2 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.3 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 6.5 12.8 20.4 23.9 19.8 10.8 2.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 98.6% 2.9    2.6 0.3
13-5 81.9% 8.9    5.4 3.1 0.4 0.0
12-6 41.4% 8.2    2.1 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0
11-7 7.5% 1.8    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 10.1 7.4 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.9% 99.6% 49.9% 49.7% 3.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-5 10.8% 97.7% 42.2% 55.5% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 95.9%
12-6 19.8% 91.5% 34.5% 56.9% 8.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 3.3 3.7 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.1 1.7 87.0%
11-7 23.9% 75.1% 25.9% 49.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.3 5.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 5.9 66.5%
10-8 20.4% 53.0% 22.0% 30.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.0 1.6 0.1 9.6 39.7%
9-9 12.8% 33.8% 18.8% 14.9% 11.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.1 8.5 18.4%
8-10 6.5% 19.4% 13.2% 6.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 5.2 7.2%
7-11 2.2% 9.9% 8.5% 1.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.6%
6-12 0.7% 9.8% 9.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 66.2% 27.0% 39.1% 8.5 0.3 0.8 1.4 3.1 3.6 4.6 6.4 7.9 10.6 11.4 11.3 4.6 0.2 33.8 53.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 2.5 17.0 35.4 26.9 18.9 1.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 4.2 1.2 2.3 22.3 36.5 22.7 13.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 99.0% 4.6 0.3 1.0 14.4 34.5 25.6 16.6 6.1 0.6